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The week beginning August 7 is packed with important national and global macroeconomic data releases that could have an impact on trading on Dalal Street.
In India, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy meeting is scheduled from August 8-10. Additionally, CPI inflation for July, industrial production, and manufacturing production data for June will be released on August 11.
On the global front in the coming week, inflation data releases from China and US for July are important. In addition, global markets are waiting for UK GDP numbers. And, trade data from China and the US are also significant.
Let’s take a look at the key economic data releases in the upcoming week:
August 7 (Monday)
US Employment Trends Index July
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) serves as an indicator of the upcoming trends in job gains or losses in the following months. In June, the ETI declined to 114.31, down from 115.53 in May.
China Exports, Imports, Trade Balance July
China’s exports fell 12.4% in June from a year earlier to $285.3 billion, compared with a decline of 7.5% in May. Imports fell 6.8% to $214.7 billion in June, down from a fall of 4.5% in May, due to poor domestic demand. The Trade Balance which measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period narrowed to $70.62 billion in June from $97.4 billion a year ago. The trade surplus had stood at $65.8 billion in May.
August 8 (Tuesday)
China CPI July
China reported no change in consumer prices for June from a year ago. Its Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was measured at 0.0 % YoY in Jun 2023, compared with a rate of 0.2 % in the previous month.
US Exports, Imports, Trade Balance June
May exports were $247.1 billion, $2.1 billion less than April exports. May imports were $316.1 billion, $7.5 billion less than April imports. The goods and services deficit was $69.0 billion in May, down $5.5 billion from $74.4 billion in April revised.
YoY, the goods and services deficit decreased $101.7 billion, or 22.8 percent, from the same period in 2022. Exports increased $48.0 billion or 3.9 percent. Imports decreased $53.7 billion or 3.2
percent.
August 9 (Wednesday)
India M3 Money Supply
M3 is a broad monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits, certificates of deposit, all other deposits and repurchase agreements. M3 money supply in India rose 10.7 percent from a year earlier to Rs 231429.32 billion in the fortnight ended July 14.
August 10 (Thursday)
RBI MPC decision
The Reserve Bank of India will hold its third bimonthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for the fiscal year 2023–24 (FY24) from August 8-10. The MPC’s decision will be announced on August 10. RBI MPC in its last meeting (June 6-8) kept repo rate, the key short-term lending rate, unchanged at 6.5 percent. This was for the second time that the central bank kept the basic rate unchanged. In the April monetary policy, the RBI surprised everyone by keeping interest rates unchanged. MPC kept the repo rate unchanged in April, after raising it by 250 basis points (bps) from May 2022.
The expectation on the Dalal Street too is that the central bank will maintain the interest rate for the third time in a row.
Nilesh Shah, MD of Kotak Mahindra AMC in a moneycontrol interview, opined the Reserve Bank will provide reassuring commentary to the market and will wait and watch in the forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the RBI.
US CPI, Core CPI July
US consumer prices gained 0.2 percent in June after edging up 0.1 percent in May. The CPI rose by 3.0% YoY in June. Core CPI, measuring the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy, YoY was 4.8% and 0.2% MoM in June.
US Initial Jobless claims
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 227,000 in the week ending August 3, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level.
August 11 (Friday)
India CPI July
India’s headline retail inflation rate snapped its four-month falling streak and rose to 4.81 percent in June from 4.31 percent in May. Core inflation – or inflation excluding food and fuel items – was largely unchanged from May’s 5.1 percent
India Industrial Production June
India’s industrial output grew by 5.2 percent in May. It was also at a three-month high. Industrial growth had come in at 4.5 percent in April and was 19.7 percent in May 2022.
India Bank Loan and Deposit Growth
In the fortnight ending June 30, the value of loans in India increased 20.20 percent YoY, and the value of deposits in India grew 13 percent YoY.
UK GDP June
Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in May, after growth of 0.2% in April. GDP has shown no growth in the three months to May 2023. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.1% QoQ in Q1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 and 0.6% YoY.
UK Industrial Production June
Industrial production in the UK shrank 0.6% month-on-month in May 2023, slipping further from a downwardly revised 0.2% decrease in April. On a yearly basis, industrial production went down 2.3%.
UK Manufacturing Production June
UK Manufacturing output was at -0.2% MoM in May versus -0.1% seen in April. On a yearly basis, Manufacturing Production data came in at -1.2% in May.
Key Q1FY 24 results
In India, the following companies are set to release their Q1FY2024 results:
Godrej Consumer Products, India Cement, Indigo Paints, Ramco Cement (Aug 7), Coal India, Hindalco, Dish TV, ITDC, Muthooot Finance, Oil India, Prestige, Religare (Aug 8), HCL, AbbottIndia, Berger Paint, Bombay Deying, IRCTC, kalyan Jewellers, SJVN, Sula, Sunteck, Tata Power, Thomas Cook, Timex, VGuard (Aug 9), LIC, Motherson, Bajaj Electricals, Biocon, Concor, Apollo, Alkem, SAIL, Torrent Power (Aug 10), NHPC, Nykaa, PFC, Voltas (Aug 11), Everready, JK Cement (Aug 12)
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