LONDON: Italy‘s benchmark bond yield hit its lowest level in 15 months on Thursday as the bond market rally continued despite central bank officials’ best attempts to rein in the exuberance.
The Italian 10-year yield, which moves inversely to the price, fell 4 basis points (bps) to 3.566% on Thursday, the lowest since late August 2022.
Meanwhile, Germany’s 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone as a whole, was last down 3 bps at 1.947%, its lowest in nine months.
Yields have tumbled in November and December as inflation in the US and Europe has fallen sharply and central bankers have said interest rate hikes are almost certainly over.
“It just seems like no one’s been willing to stand in the way of this (rally) and you do wonder is that partly because it’s year-end and no one really wants to get cut out,” said Lyn Graham-Taylor, rates strategist at Rabobank.
“It’s always difficult at this time of year reading too much into stuff, just because you do get these outsized moves based on thin liquidity.”
Investors expect more than 150 bps worth of interest rate cuts from the ECB next year and a similar amount from the US Federal Reserve, although officials have said markets are getting ahead of themselves.
Expectations for lower interest rates – and therefore government borrowing costs – have been a balm for Italy, which has a pile of public debt worth around 140% of gross domestic product.
The gap between Italy and Germany’s 10-year bond yields was last at 160 bps. It fell to its lowest since late June on Wednesday at 157 bps.
Shorter-dated yields, sensitive to central bank rate expectations, also fell. Germany’s two-year yield was down 4 bps at 2.438%, just above Wednesday’s nine-month low.
Numerous ECB officials have said investors are getting too giddy.
“Once we see inflation is clearly converging in a stable manner to our target of 2%, monetary policy might then start to ease. But it’s still too early for that to happen,” ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told Spanish newspaper 20 Minutos in an interview published on Thursday.
Euro zone inflation fell to 2.4% in November but many economists think it is likely to tick up again to around 3%.
German central bank chief Joachim Nagel on Wednesday explicitly warned markets: “I would say to everyone who is speculating on an imminent interest rate cut: be careful, some people have already miscalculated that.”
The economic calendar is light on Thursday, with a final reading of US third-quarter GDP and US weekly jobless claims due at 1330 GMT.