Created: Sep 23, 2023 08:00 AM

Survivorship bias suggested that it was the aircraft that did not return from war that needed upgrading, not those that did

Ever wondered if sidestepping pitfalls could be smarter than relentlessly chasing perfection? Let me introduce you to the world of inversion, a transformative mental model that underscores the power of avoiding mistakes over relentlessly pursuing success. Originating from the insights of German mathematician Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi, this principle succinctly suggests: “Invert, always invert.”

Today, entrepreneurs, chief executives and pioneers in business have begun harnessing this approach. But why is it causing ripples across the boardrooms of the world?

The Inversion Mental Model shifts the focus from the tantalising promise of success to the often-overlooked potential pitfalls. Instead of becoming entranced by the dazzling allure of perfection, it encourages a pre-emptive approach — to foresee and address what can go wrong. This isn’t just a strategy; it’s a mindset shift that propels us to examine our goals from a fresh vantage point.

As I tread this path, I must admit I’m no master. I am still navigating, still learning. But the clarity and simplicity that inversion offers have been nothing short of enlightening. The essence? Instead of solely questioning, “How can I achieve success?”, pause and reflect: “What might ensure my downfall?”. Interestingly, the latter often yields clearer, actionable insights, enabling one to mitigate these challenges before they even arise.

To truly appreciate the potency of inversion, let’s journey back in time. The Second World War narrative of Abraham Wald and the curious case of the missing bullet holes is a lesson. During the war, aircraft limping back from battlefields showcased a curious pattern: bullet holes predominantly marked the fuselage, leaving engines nearly unscathed. The logical recommendation? Reinforce the fuselage. However, Wald, an esteemed statistician renowned for his wartime aircraft studies, presented an entirely contrarian viewpoint.

Wald was the pioneer behind the concept of “survivorship bias”. The evidence of bullet holes on returning aircraft was not just a pattern; it was a biased sample. These planes had survived. The real concern lay with the aircraft that never made it back — those that were hit in their engines. Through this lens, Wald deduced that it was the engines, not the fuselage, that demanded additional armouring.

Wald’s genius was not just in spotting the oversight but in flipping the problem on its head. Rather than asking where most damage was seen, he asked where damage was fatal. This profound act of inversion didn’t offer a direct solution but sidestepped a grave error. It is a testament to the power of approaching problems by identifying and avoiding pitfalls. After all, as Wald’s insight teaches us, the core of inversion: not just seeking solutions, but avoiding catastrophic oversights.

From wartime aircraft to modern boardrooms, the principle holds. Consider the quest for fostering innovation within an organisation. The straightforward approach entails brainstorming strategies to bolster innovative thinking. But inversion urges one to contemplate actions that would thwart innovation, thus highlighting the don’ts. Unsurprisingly, some of these don’ts may be already present in your team meetings or boardrooms.

Another contemplation could be around the constituents of a good life. Instead of listing what may enrich life, ponder on what would undoubtedly make it miserable. In essence, by identifying pitfalls, you inadvertently chart a clearer path to the desired outcome. This practice of sidestepping life’s potential miseries often delineates a clearer road map to fulfilment.

In echoing the wisdom of Jacobi, Charlie Munger offers a compelling perspective: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.”

This ethos epitomises the power of inversion. So, next time you’re faced with a challenge, remember it may be simpler to sidestep the pitfalls than to seek the pinnacle. After all, evading missteps could very well be the hallmark of brilliance.

Christian Chin-Gurret is a Bermudian writer with a Master of Science in Innovation and Entrepreneurship and a Bachelor of Science in Product Design, who offers a unique perspective on shaping the future of business through innovation, disruption and technology

• Christian Chin-Gurret is a Bermudian writer with a Master of Science in Innovation and Entrepreneurship and a Bachelor of Science in Product Design, who offers a unique perspective on shaping the future of business through innovation, disruption and technology. He can be reached at https://www.linkedin.com/in/christianchingurret/