“What’s going on in China is a great example of fear,” he said, commenting on how consumers are saving 35% of their disposable income, following the COVID-19 outbreak in that country.

“Right now we’re invested in China … when we see savings rates decline and they’re consuming more, that’s an indication of more hope,” he said. “The issue is that we, as business leaders, we as political leaders, if we don’t provide more hope, this is what causes recessions.”

Fink waded into the debate on whether the U.S. is headed for recession, saying he “doesn’t see it anytime soon” though maybe by 2025 such a downturn could materialize. “Whatever recessions we’re going to have, they’re going to be quite modest, so I’m not even that fearful,” he said.

An economic pullback may be needed to bring down labor demand, as stimulative legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act will help create jobs in the U.S., said Fink.

Fink gave his view on where the yield on the 10-year
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y

is headed, saying “at least 5% or higher.”

“Because of this embedded inflation, the structural inflation is unlike anything … and I think business leaders and politicians are not providing the foundation to help explain this. We have not seen inflation like this in over 30 years,” he said. He talked about the “deeper structural inflation” that has come from, for example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, exposing Germany’s dependence on Russian energy or dependencies on China’s technology.

See: German inflation slows to lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine

The S&P 500
SPX
has gained 12% this year but has lost 5% in September.