In the face of human-caused climate change impacting water access and weather patterns in the Willamette Valley — a region known for hops growing — Goschie will need all the new strategies the farm can get to sustain what it produces and provides to local and larger breweries alike.

All of a sudden, climate change “was not coming any longer,” Goschie said, “it was here.”

Climate change is anticipated to only further the challenges producers are already seeing in two key beer crops: hops and barley. Some hops and barley growers in the U.S. say they’ve already seen their crops affected by extreme heat, drought and unpredictable growing seasons. Researchers are working with growers to help counter the effects of more volatile weather systems with improved hop varieties that can withstand drought and by adding winter barley to the mix.

Researchers have known for a while that beer production will be affected by climate change, said Mirek Trnka, a professor at the Global Change Research Institute. He and his team recently authored a study modeling the effect of climate change on hops, out last month in Nature Communications, that projected yields in Europe will decrease between 4% and 18% by 2050. His first study on hops 15 years ago issued a similar warning.

“If we don’t act, we’re just going to also lose things that we consider not to be, for example, sensitive or related to climate change. Like beer,” he said.

Climate change moves faster than we might realize but still too slowly for many to notice, he said. The fact that researchers started picking up on this means there’s promise for adaptation and solutions in the form of farming changes, but Trnka still has his concerns.

Hops declines in Europe mean changes for American producers, too. One craft brewery that gets some of its hops from Goschie said the company is trying to replicate the flavors of German hops using new varieties grown in the U.S. because the ones it depends on from Europe were affected by hot, dry summers over the last couple of years.

That’s why some researchers are working on varieties of hops that can better withstand summer heat, warmer winters, changing pests and diseases and less snowfall, which could mean less available irrigation, said Shaun Townsend, an associate professor and senior researcher at Oregon State University. Townsend is working on a project where he subjects hops to drought stress to eventually create more drought-tolerant varieties.

It’s no easy task and can take a decade, and it also has to take into account brewers’ main considerations: taste and yield. But the possibility of running out of water is a reality that’s on people’s radars, he said.

Meanwhile, barley improvements are already well underway.

Kevin Smith, professor of agronomy and plant genetics at the University of Minnesota, said that while spring barley is the dominant type for the U.S. beer industry, winter barley — which is planted in the fall and kept on fields during the coldest months of the year — may be more feasible now in the Midwest, where other barley types have been given up due to climate, plant disease and economic factors in favor of crops that are less risky.

Winter barley may also be desirable for craft breweries that have started emphasizing local ingredients and who want something grown close by. Farmers also can grow it as a cover crop during the off-season — when fields are normally bare — to help prevent erosion, improve their soil health and keep carbon stored in the ground.

There hasn’t always been complete consensus on the promise of winter barley. Smith told a story about his predecessor, who was a longtime spring barley breeder. Another scientist — Patrick Hayes, a professor at Oregon State University — was describing to him his hopes for the future of winter barley. Smith’s predecessor wrote on a business card, “it can’t be done,” referring to his firm belief that winter barley just wasn’t worth the trouble.

Hayes kept the card in his office, and made it his life’s mission to work on improving winter barley.

There are now winter barley programs in nearly every state in the country, said Ashley McFarland, the vice president and technical director of the American Malting Barley Association. She doesn’t think winter barley will ever be the entirety of the crop in the U.S., but says producers will need to diversify their risk in order to be more resilient to climate shocks.

Molson Coors and Anheuser Busch, the two biggest beer companies in the U.S., issue annual environmental reports that pledge commitments to sustainably sourcing hops and barley and reducing water usage, but neither company responded to an Associated Press request for comment on those efforts.

Hops can be a finicky crop when it comes to their climate, and without water, you simply can’t make beer, said Douglass Miller, senior lecturer at Cornell who teaches a class on beer. He added that the price of beer might rise due to climate impacts on the supply chain — but so will the price of everything else on the menu.

“All beverage categories are being impacted by this,” he said.