The so-called ‘semi-final’ round does not have an impact on the national outcome, according to analysts. The major mover in markets are the results of the general elections.

Stock markets have risen on the day of the results, irrespective of the winner in December in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018. Benchmark indices also advanced in the month following the results, except in 2013.

According to various exit polls, the BJP is set for a comfortable win in Madhya Pradesh, while it also leads in Rajasthan. The Congress is expected to retain power in Chhattisgarh, albeit with a smaller majority. The grand old party is also projected to win in Telangana.

Here’s the market reacts to state polls:

In 2003, the Bharatiya Janata Party registered wins in the state polls in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, while the Congress secured Delhi. After the results were announced on Dec. 4, the Nifty gained 16.7% while the Sensex traded 15.56% higher over the course of the next 30 days.

Interestingly, the BJP victories in these polls motivated the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to prepone the 2004 general elections, which his National Democratic Alliance lost. That upset pulled the benchmarks down by over 10% in the subsequent 30 days.

Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress wrested the Hindi heartland states of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan from the BJP.

However, the same states were swept in the second Modi wave in the parliamentary polls five months later. Both the indices saw over 12% advance through the period.