Has the fallout from the Pannun incident really been capped?

The indictment by US agencies of Indian criminal Nikhil Gupta for plotting the murder of Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on behalf of an Indian government agent may cause the unravelling of a macho narrative being prepared for the general election of 2024. The unfortunate events may have emerged from the virile foreign policy the BJP government wants to forge for a “new India”. 

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A charge sheet filed after approval from a grand jury for a criminal trial shows that the US has more information than it has revealed. For example, Gupta’s handler, referred to as CC-1, is described in the very first sentence of the indictment as “an identified Indian government employee (“CC-1″), working together with others in India and elsewhere, including Nikhil Gupta, aka ‘Nick’.” Clearly, the prosecuting US agencies know the name of the handler, who they claim is an Indian intelligence officer. 

The reference to “others in India” indicates that the handler was not acting alone. Indeed, the indictment notes that several people were present in a video call made by Gupta (from India) to the potential assassin (actually, a US undercover agent, identified as UC): “…on or about June 12, 2023, the UC received a video call from Gupta, who appeared to be in a conference room. During the call, Gupta turned the camera toward approximately three other men in the room who were dressed in business attire, sitting around a conference table with Gupta. As Gupta turned the camera back toward himself, he told the UC, “We are all counting on you”.” 

In the worst-case scenario, when Gupta’s trial begins, not only his handler (CC-1) but also those who were “counting” on a successful assassination may be summoned. No government, least of all one that nurtures a “muscular” national and international image, can afford to extradite an officer of its intelligence agencies. Given this genuine dilemma, how far can the high-level probe committee set up by India on November 18 to look into the matter really go? 

The US revelations show that it is unwilling to ignore the overreach of the Indian intelligence agencies. It has clearly chosen not to sweep the botched assassination attempt targeting one of its citizens under the carpet. It could have looked the other way, as it did when it knew that Pakistan was developing a nuclear bomb but needed its cooperation to protect its self-interest in Afghanistan. Compared to that, a failed attempt to kill Pannun is insignificant. He remains alive, unlike his colleague Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was killed in Canada.

Some, however, believe that the fallout from the incident has been capped based on statements by US officials in the wake of Gupta’s indictment. They quote John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council at the White House. While praising “Indian efforts to investigate” the affair, he clarified, “India remains a strategic partner and we’re going to continue to work to improve and strengthen that strategic partnership with India.” The New York Times, in a report from New Delhi, also quoted unnamed diplomats suggesting that the “measured response” of the US “is a sign that US officials could have information to suggest that the plot did not go far up the chain in India.” 

Different governments in India have addressed the problem of terrorism according to their wisdom – but cross-border assassination of anti-India elements was never an option. Even the present government says that such a crime would be “contrary to government policy”. Yet statements by the current Indian leadership suggest otherwise. What, for example, is one to make of the provocative policy of “ghar mein ghus ke maarenge” (we will hit the enemy inside his home) announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019?

A more plausible reading of the measured statements by US officials may be that it makes a distinction between the ruling dispensation in Delhi and India. The US may have no problem with India or the Indian people. Neither the US nor the world can ignore a nation of 1.4 billion people and the storehouse of technical talent the global community needs for innovation.

This turn of events will undoubtedly become a millstone around the government’s neck as the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on the alleged involvement of Indian agents in the plot in the coming week. Its chairman is Benjamin Cardin, who, as an ordinary member of the committee earlier, had raised issues of human rights violations and freedom of speech in India, arguing for a formal and regular India-US dialogue on human rights issues. India is bound to get bad publicity once the hearing takes place. Then again, when Gupta’s trial begins.

It also means that an important strand of the potential election campaign of the BJP for 2024, à la the ‘surgical strike’ on Balakot in Pakistan for the 2019 general election, will no longer be available to the party. The Pakistan story used successfully by the BJP in the past is also no longer available because now a US-supported caretaker government is in power there.