Food prices showed a small decrease in December 2023, continuing a declining trend in food inflation for South Africa, which should continue into 2024.

The latest food basket data from the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity group (PMBEJD) shows that food prices in South Africa continued to climb in December year-on-year, but dropped month-on-month.

The average cost of the Household Food Basket was recorded at R5,238.20 in December – R76.43 (or 1.4%) lower than in November 2023 but R385.03 (0r 7.9%) higher than in December 2022.

Year-on-year food price inflation is still higher than headline inflation recorded by Stats SA, but is showing a downward trend. The basket inflation in November was at 9.9% that month, meaning year-on-year prices have eased by as much as two whole percentage points.

The PMBEJD’s basket comprises 44 food items that most households in South Africa would purchase on a typical month. While this reflects a lower-income basket, this is what the majority of households would look at.

Approximately 55% of South Africans live under the upper-bound poverty line of R1,558 per month, the group noted.

Across the 44 food items tracked by the group, five came down in price, year-on-year, and one item remained flat. The balance (39 items) went up.

While the overall basket appears to be easing, 23 food items still saw double-digit growth year-on-year, reflecting significant increases. Eight of these saw prices jump over 20%:

• Eggs: +55%
• Potatoes: +50%
• Oranges: +49%
• Butternut: +45%
• Apples: +29%
• Bananas: +25%
• Green pepper: +23%
• Rice: +21%

The stand-out price hikes were seen in potatoes and eggs, which is a continuation of the trend seen in the latter months of 2023.

According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), South Africa has experienced a 24% reduction in potato volumes due to the impact of load shedding on the ability to irrigate, which is why prices have shot up.

Egg prices showed a large increase amid the Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak.

While the year-on-year prices for things like potatoes, butternut and even onions remain high, December did see these prices come down significantly, the PMBEJD said.

Potato prices were down 19% month-on-month, butternut came down 17% and tomatoes and onions came down 12% and 10%, respectively, the group noted.

Egg price also appear to be stabilising off a high base, it said, but they remain “considerably higher” than the same time last year.

More positively, many food items are also coming down in price and are lower than they were in December 2022. These include:

• Onions: -27%
• Cooking oil: -13%
• Maine meal: -7%
• Beef: -2%
• Beef liver: -1%

Regionally, the baskets for various cities followed the overall national trend.

• The Joburg basket decreased by R62.40 (-1.2%) month-on-month and increased by R471.08 (9.7%) year-on-year, to R5,348.09.

• The Durban basket decreased by R56.49 (-1.1%) month-on-month and increased by R297.22 (6.0%) year-on-year to R5,213.21.

• The Cape Town basket decreased by R115,61 (-2.2%) month-on-month and increased by R355.45 (7.4%) year-on-year to R5,132.78.

• The Springbok basket decreased by R153.81 (-2.7%) month-on-month and increased by R464.87 (9.1%) year-on-year to R5,597.73.

• The Maritzburg basket decreased by R30,31 (-0.6%) month-on-month and increased by R361.71 (7.7%) year-on-year to R5,035.02.

• The Mtubatuba basket decreased by R76,40 (-1.4%) month-on-month and increased by R202.18 (4.0%) year-on-year to R5,276.13.

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