Golden Globes 2024 predictions: Who will and should win?

Despite having been a reliable source of controversy and the butt of the joke over the years, the Globes are back and trying to sell themselves as a respectable awards show.

The new relaunch as a for-profit organisation hopefully means fewer ethical SNAFUs and no more diversity issues. It certainly looks like a revamp: a new network (CBS); an untested host (comedian Jo Koy); and a very strong (and international) set of nominations this year.

They may actually pull this one off.

So, will Barbenheimer dominate proceedings, thereby heralding an upcoming Oscar battle for the ages? Will the fresh set of new voters mean we’re in for some surprises? Not long now to find out.

Here are Euronews Culture’s predictions for this year’s Golden Globes.

Best Picture (Drama)

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

We doubt that the nominated Killers of the Flower Moon will upset things when it comes to the big night, as Oppenheimer has Best Picture (Drama) in the bag. One half of Barbenheimer cultural monopoly (more on that in a bit), Christopher Nolan’s historical epic would be a deserving winner. 

We’re rooting for Maestro, Bradley Cooper’s stunning Leonard Bernstein biopic, to create a last-minute upset – and traditionally, it’s the sort of film that would tick all the boxes for Best Drama – as well as Celine Song’s Past Lives (our Top Film of 2023). However, the odds are that Oppenheimer will emerge triumphant. 

Spare a thought for Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest though, which is hands down the strongest film nominated. Sadly, it’ll probably leave the Globes emptyhanded, by our calculations.

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: Barbie

Should Win: Poor Things

Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos’ “diabolical fuckfest of a puzzle,” should really win this one. And it may yet happen. However, the obvious choice seems to be Barbie. 

Greta Gerwig’s film is the most nominated at this year’s Globes and was last year’s biggest box office hit. Plus, imagine the Barbenheimer headlines… Surely they won’t pass it up.

Best Director

Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Should Win: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

Oppenheimer and Barbie may be competing in different categories, but when it comes to directors, Nolan and Gerwig are facing off directly. 

We’re betting Nolan emerges victorious for Best Director, especially since he’s never won a Globe. He was nominated for Best Director for Inception in 2010 and Dunkirk in 2017. The third-time-lucky rule clinches it. 

Should it not happen though, we’re rooting for Celine Song (Past Lives) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things). Because we’re always rooting for those two.

Best Screenplay

Will Win: Barbie – Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach

Should Win: Past Lives – Celine Song

This one will hurt a bit, as voters will probably go for Barbie. A popular choice though it may be, nearly all the other nominees this year have stronger scripts – namely Tony McNamara with Poor Things and Justine Triet & Arthur Harari with Anatomy of a Fall. 

Again, and to no surprise at this point, we’d give it to Celine Song for her devastating screenplay.

Best Actress (Drama)

Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Should Win: Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

We’re not the biggest fans of Killers of the Flower Moon. We know we’re in the minority, but Scorsese’s American reckoning, no matter how fascinating, was an overlong slog that failed to even make our Top 20 of 2023. We stand by it. 

However, if there was one element that everyone in the office could unanimously agree upon, it’s that Lily Gladstone is wonderful, and she should be on our screens more. She may be lesser known compared to some of her fellow nominees, like Annette Bening (Nyad) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro), but she eclipses Leo and Bobby straight off the screen in Killers by not only being the story’s emotional core, but one of the most compelling screen presences all year. 

One roadblock could be in her way though: the formidable Sandra Hüller, our Euronews Culture Person of the Year (Cinema). We’re predicting Hüller is on her way to an Oscar, so maybe a win at the Globes might cement her frontrunner status. That said, the Globes have always gone their own way, so even if the German actress fails to secure a Globe, everything’s not lost.

Best Actor (Drama)

Will Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Should Win: Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

It’s a neck-and-neck race between Cillian Murphy and Bradley Cooper for this one. 

While we’re hoping Cooper gets it – because of his transformative turn as composer Leonard Bernstein, as well as for the sake of variety – don’t be surprised in Murphy ends up with a statuette, thereby contributing to making Oppenheimer this edition’s runaway winner.

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Should Win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Emma Stone. 

Emma Stone. 

Emma Stone. 

Emma Stone. 

Have we mentioned how much we love Emma Stone in the fantastical riot Poor Things? 

Well, we do. 

And if Margot Robbie, wonderful though she is in Barbie, or Nathalie Portman, terrific in May December, ruin this for us, we’ll riot.

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Should Win: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Not an easy one to call, this one, as it’s another neck-and-neck race – this time between Jeffrey Wright and Paul Giamatti. 

Both deserve it, even if we’re keeping our fingers crossed for the latter, as Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers was one of our favourite films of last year, and deserves to rack up its awards count.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Should Win: Julianne Moore (May December)

Speaking of The Holdovers, there’s very little chance that Da’Vine Joy Randolph won’t run away with this one. She is stunning in Payne’s film and brought us to tears more than once throughout. 

The only competition she could face is Julianne Moore, whose performance in May December continues to send chills down our spines.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer)

Should Win: Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Robert Downey Jr. gave a brilliant performance in Oppenheimer, and now that his superhero days are over, it would be nice to him bag an award for his efforts. 

However, with Ryan Gosling winning the popular vote as Ken in Barbie ; Robert De Niro giving his best performance in years in Killers of the Flower Moon ; and Charles Melton surprising everyone as May December ’s stealth MVP, there’s competition a ‘plenty. 

Our vote would (surprise, surprise) go to Mark Ruffalo, whose OTT and deliriously entertaining turn as Emma Stone’s rakish lover had us in stitches.

Best Picture (Non-English Language)

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

As much as we want The Zone of Interest or Past Lives to win this one, we’re guessing that Anatomy of a Fall has this category of lockdown. 

Justine Triet’s Palme d’Or winner has been riding a buzzy wave coming into awards season, with wins for Best Screenplay and Best International Film at the Gotham Independent Film Awards, Best Foreign Language Film at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and hoovering up the trophies at the European Film Awards. 

It’s Anatomy ’s year. And it remains a crime that The Zone of Interest won’t get any love.

Best Picture (Animated)

Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Should Win: Suzume

The much-anticipated sequel to 2018’s Into the Spider-Verse did not disappoint, and built on the mash-up animation style that made its predecessor so vibrant. Directors Joaquim Dos Santos, Justin K. Thompson and Kemp Powers kept things lively and irreverent, and never forgot that the big themes and bombastic animation needed emotional beats. 

It’s a fine choice in this category, but we think that when push comes to shove, Makoto Shinkai’s Suzume is a far more worthy winner. His environmental disaster movie exists somewhere between fantasy YA coming-of-age and an emotionally engaging apocalyptic thrill ride; it has something to say about the way we heal in the wake of disasters, and how grief is inevitable no matter how hard we try to fight it. We may well have to deal with our grief should it not nab the Best Animated Picture.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Will Win: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (AMC Theatres)

Should Win: Barbie (Warner Bros.)

It’s this year’s new category, and it could very well be another Oppenheimer / Barbie showdown. 

However, TayTay’s massively successful concert film reminded everyone what was so great about the genre ; and considering it’s not eligible for the Oscars, a win for The Eras Tour would be consecration for Swift and her Swifties, especially after her banner 2023, which was well and truly the TayTay supremacay.

The Golden Globes air on Sunday 7 January – Monday 8 January, 2:00 AM – 4:00 AM CET. Click here for the full set of nominations, and stay tuned to Euronews Culture for the full results.