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The end game is still far from clear, but much higher debt servicing costs make it ever more difficult to support a debt overhang of such magnitude. We can expect default, debt restructuring and the time-honoured debt reduction method of tolerated inflation to define the future.
In any case, if the credit bubble has indeed come to an end, it multiplies the challenges of net zero.
Surging debt, high inflation, and weak growth prospects are causing governments ever more loudly to question the hitherto biblical status of their climate change commitments.
Rewind to 2019, when Britain became the first country in the world to make net zero by 2050 legally binding. Heady days. At the time, there was overwhelming political support for the pledge. Other major advanced economies rushed to follow suit.
What’s more, there was near universal faith in the idea that the target could be delivered at limited cost. Many argued that far from costing first movers, the green transition would instead enrich them by supporting investment, innovation and jobs – in other words, a net positive for the economy as well as the environment. Governments were encouraged to put climate policy ahead of all other goals.
When credit is abundant and money is cheap, it’s easy to treat emissions as the world’s most urgent issue, but when it is scarce and expensive, and geopolitical tensions are rising, the choices become much more difficult.
The International Energy Agency estimates that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will require additional investment in mitigation of $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion globally over the next decade alone, this at a time of rising budgetary constraints and debt servicing costs.
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Going green was never going to be easy, now it’s doomed to fail
[ad_1]
The end game is still far from clear, but much higher debt servicing costs make it ever more difficult to support a debt overhang of such magnitude. We can expect default, debt restructuring and the time-honoured debt reduction method of tolerated inflation to define the future.
In any case, if the credit bubble has indeed come to an end, it multiplies the challenges of net zero.
Surging debt, high inflation, and weak growth prospects are causing governments ever more loudly to question the hitherto biblical status of their climate change commitments.
Rewind to 2019, when Britain became the first country in the world to make net zero by 2050 legally binding. Heady days. At the time, there was overwhelming political support for the pledge. Other major advanced economies rushed to follow suit.
What’s more, there was near universal faith in the idea that the target could be delivered at limited cost. Many argued that far from costing first movers, the green transition would instead enrich them by supporting investment, innovation and jobs – in other words, a net positive for the economy as well as the environment. Governments were encouraged to put climate policy ahead of all other goals.
When credit is abundant and money is cheap, it’s easy to treat emissions as the world’s most urgent issue, but when it is scarce and expensive, and geopolitical tensions are rising, the choices become much more difficult.
The International Energy Agency estimates that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will require additional investment in mitigation of $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion globally over the next decade alone, this at a time of rising budgetary constraints and debt servicing costs.
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Source link