Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.

“The strength of the automotive products and electronic components indices may be explained by surging global demand for electric vehicles, while the weak result for raw materials may be partly due to weakening property markets as interest rates remain elevated,” WTO said.

India is the fastest-growing electric vehicle market. The Economic Survey 2022-23 said that India’s domestic electric vehicle market will see a 49 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2022 and 2030, with 10 million annual sales by 2030. WTO predicted that the trade statistics for the third quarter should come in slightly stronger thanks to accelerating GDP growth in the United States and China, even as a stagnant European Union economy continued to weigh on global demand.

World merchandise trade volume was flat in the second quarter of 2023, up 0.2 per cent compared to the previous quarter but still down 0.5 per cent year-on-year.

The barometer’s component indices are mixed, with some rising firmly above trend and others remaining on or below trend. The biggest gains were seen in the indices for automobile sales and production (110.0) and electronic components trade (109.8). The indices for air freight (100.3), export orders (99.4), and container shipping (98.0) finished on or slightly below trend, while the raw materials index (95.6) sank below trend, WTO said.

India’s goods exports in October also registered an uptick with a 6.2 per cent rise, only the second jump in the ongoing financial year.

Exports have been on the decline due to weak demand in Western economies as high-interest rates have hit consumption.