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Indecision is sending the economy down a path of stagnation that will last for years, warns Hopper at the German-British Chamber of Commerce.
“There will be a prolonged period of stagnation because of demographics, the cost of energy and burdensome bureaucracy that is hindering companies to do business and create economic growth,” says Hopper.
Germany also faces a near-term headache, with official figures showing inflation stood at 6.1pc in August, almost as high as the UK’s headline rate of 6.8pc in July. The latest figures, which showed a spike in energy inflation, are a reminder of how exposed Germany is to fluctuating prices, says Christian Fuertjes, an economist at HSBC.
He says: “The strong rise in energy inflation in August is a reminder that the decline in headline inflation rates over the past few months was probably an overshoot relative to the decline in wholesale energy prices, and has started to reverse. Hence, even though food price inflation continues to ease, there might be some significant upside risks from energy inflation in the upcoming months that both financial markets and – to a lesser degree – some central bankers seem to have underestimated.”
Schmieding at Berenberg believes Germany will experience a “genteel decline” that threatens its status as Europe’s powerhouse.
“The role of power house is gradually being assumed by France,” he says, simply because it’s “more dynamic.”
Schmieding says Germany is becoming “a bit like Japan – declining but seemingly happy about it.”
He adds: “There will be a decline in Germany relative to other economies. It’s not a crisis but it [will go from] being the strongest major economy in Europe to being in the middle and gradually losing in importance on a global scale.
The demographic decline in Germany is also stark. Low birth rates mean Germany faces a bigger demographic drag on growth than many of its western peers.
Today, there are around 25 people aged 65 or older for every 100 workers. In fifty years time, that number will be more like 65.
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