[ad_1]
- FTSE 100 finishes 6 points higher
- UK GDP forecasts revised up
- Eurozone inflation lower than expected
4.40pm: FTSE stays level
The UK’s premier index finished the quarter on level ground, gaining 6 points on the day to finish at 7,606.
Short-covering amid lower inflation helps stocks stabilize, said Axel Rudolph, senior market analyst at online trading platform IG.
“The September rut in stock indices paused into quarter end as both Eurozone and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure slow down. A lower oil price, US yields and US dollar also help sentiment, despite the greenback remaining on track for its eleventh consecutive week of gains.”
3:56pm: US inflation figures support no hike this quarter, says ING
A bit more on the PCE inflation figures.
ING Economic notes the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation undershot expectations and has boosted the case for the Fed not hiking rates in the current quarter.
But huge upward revisions to houshold savings suggests the consumer can remain more resilient than we thought likely and supports the case for the Fed keeping monetary policy tighter for longer.
So, something for everyone there.
ING thinks the figures should argue against the need for a fourth quarter rate hike, especially if we aren’t going to get much data over the next month due to the strong likelihood of a government shutdown.
But huge revisions to income and spending mean households have more residual savings than thought, ING said.
“If there are residual savings out there then consumer spending could end up being more resilient, which would justify the market’s belief in Federal Reserve monetary policy staying tighter for longer,” the team at ING believe.
3:35pm: Carnival back in profit for first time since Covid
Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) (Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL)) reported record third quarter revenue helping the cruise operator book its first quarterly profit since before the Covid pandemic.
“We delivered over $1 billion to the bottom line with revenue reaching an all-time high” said chief executive Josh Weinstein. “Both revenue and earnings significantly exceeded expectations this quarter enabling us to take up expectations for the year.”
Weinstein said the outperformance was driven by strength in demand, with North America, Australia and Europe equally outperforming expectations.
Carnival said booking volumes during the third quarter and September continued at “significantly elevated levels” and the advanced booked position for full year 2024 is well above the high end of the historical range, at higher prices than 2023.
The company said in the three months to August 31 revenue rose 59% to $6.85 billion, from $4.31 billion the year prior, and net income of $1.07 billion, swinging from a net loss of $770 million previously.
Diluted EPS totalled $0.79 compared to LPS of $0.65 the year before.
Looking ahead to the full-year, the company expects adjusted Ebitda of $4.1 billion to $4.2 billion, within the June guidance range, occupancy of 100% or higher and net per diems up around 7.0%, one percentage point higher than the midpoint of June guidance.
Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel are expected at the high end of June guidance range but fuel consumption is seen nearly 16% lower than 2019, better than previously expected.
Carnival shares were trading 0.3% lower at 1,045p in London but 0.6% higher at $14.53 in New York.
2:44pm: Wall Street opens higher after PCE print
As expected, it’s been a bright start in the US, helping keep the FTSE 100 firmly in the green, up 44 points at 7,646.
The bounce came as the US central bank’s preferred inflation gauge hit a two-year low boosting hopes that interest rates have peaked.
Shortly after the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 156.15 points, 0.5%. at 33,822.49, the S&P 500 was up 25.95 points, 0.6%, at 4,325.65 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 128.14 points, 1.0%, at 13,329.42.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, has dropped to an annual rate of 3.9% in August, according to figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, down from 4.2% in July.
That’s the lowest reading for core PCE since September 2021, and could signal that America’s battle against inflation is still on track.
On a monthly basis, core PCE rose by just 0.1% in August, easing from July’s 0.2% increase.
Craig Erlam at Oanda said while the annual readings may have been in line that’s “extremely promising as far as recent trends are concerned.”
“With data over the coming weeks likely to be disrupted, this certainly feels like it falls in the pause category for the Fed at the next meeting,” he said.
Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics said the data also reinforced his view that the Fed’s inflation projections are far too pessimistic.
“Barring a dramatic re-acceleration in that monthly pace, which is unlikely given the cooling labour market and the sharp downturn in housing inflation, we continue to expect core PCE inflation fall well below the Fed’s 3.7% projection for the end of this year.”
“That should help ensure that the Fed’s next move will be to start cutting rates again early next year,” he thinks.
1:59pm: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge drops to 2-year low
The FTSE 100 remains upbeat after news the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure has dropped to a two-year low.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, has dropped to an annual rate of 3.9% in August, according to figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, down from 4.2% in July.
That’s the lowest reading for Core PCE since September 2021, and could signal that America’s battle against inflation is still on track.
On a monthly basis, core PCE rose by just 0.1% in August, easing from July’s 0.2% increase.
US PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Aug: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
– US PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Aug: 3.9% (est 3.9%; prevR 4.3%)
– US PCE Deflator (M/M) Aug: 0.4% (est 0.5%; prev 0.2%)
– US PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Aug: 3.5% (est 3.5%; prevR 3.4%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 29, 2023
The headline PCE index rose 3.5% on-year last month, quickening slightly from a 3.4% increase in July, the third month in-a-row that year-on-year growth in personal consumption expenditures has quickened.
On a monthly basis, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.4% in August from July.
1:02pm: BoE calls on lenders not to underestimte hits to borrowers
The Bank of England has urged UK lenders not to underestimate the risk of loan defaults as higher inflation and increased interest rates hit more vulnerable borrowers.
In a letter to chief financial officers at financial institutions supervised by the BoE, published online, the central bank also warned them not to overestimate how much money they would recover when borrowers defaulted on loans.
Victoria Saporta, the BoE’s executive director for prudential policy, said: “We encourage further efforts by firms to challenge whether models capture risks associated with affordability, including the impact of higher inflation and interest rates on vulnerable borrowers or sectors.”
Saporta added that default experience has been limited in recent years, so firms need to examine if their post model adjustments (PMAs) are up to speed.
“Given higher inflation and interest rates, we believe it is important to challenge recovery assumptions used in loss given default and compensate for model and data limitations through PMAs,” she added.
12:28am: Lloyds survey shows drop in business confidence
Business confidence fell to 36% in September after the surge to an 18-month high of 41% in August, a survey showed today.
The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer for September said the fall was a result of pullbacks in firms’ assessment of both their trading prospects for the year ahead and optimism regarding the wider economy.
From a sector perspective, the decline centred in retail and services, while outcomes for manufacturing and construction were mixed.
Regionally, only three areas – Yorkshire & the Humber, the East Midlands and the North West – reported higher confidence this month.
In tandem with the broad sentiment slide, hiring intentions were reined back compared with last month, although firms continued to attach high priority to attracting and retaining staff.
Hann-Ju Ho economics & market insights analyst at Lloyds Bank said: “While the gains in business confidence we saw in August have not been maintained, it’s important to see the wider trend clearly reflected in the data which paints a very different picture to this time 12 months ago, when the economy was in significant difficulties.”
“Although the economic environment remains uncertain with inflation and interest rate pressures playing their part, the recent decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged is likely to help businesses feel more upbeat about the future, which may underpin confidence in the last three months of the year.”
12:00pm: Good mood looks set to extend to the US
The bright mood in Europe looks set to extend to the US with stocks set to end a drab month on the front foot with futures pointing to a strong open on Friday.
In pre-market trading, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were 0.5% higher, while those for the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and contracts for the Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.7%.
Strong results from Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) lifted the mood with the Eugene, Oregon-based retailer up 8% in pre-market deals.
Whether the good mood holds could depend on how the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index prints today.
It is expected to reach an annualised rate of 3.9%, down from 4.2% in July. Headline PCE is projected to be 3.5% in August, up from 3.3% in July.
Elsewhere, The University of Michigan will release the final September reading of its consumer sentiment index, which economists anticipate will be the same as the preliminary level of 67.7.
Meanwhile, John Williams, head of the Fed’s New York branch, will tour Long Island and meet leaders in business and government, and is expected to deliver remarks about the economic outlook at the Long Island Association.
On Thursday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers were at risk of overshooting on interest rates by putting too much emphasis on the idea that steep job losses are needed to quell inflation.
The FTSE 100 is up 0.8%, while in Europe the Dax in Frankfurt is 1.0% to the good, and the Cac 40 in Paris is also 1.0% higher.
11:28am: UK faces highest tax burden for 70 years
Better news on the UK economy but tax payers are paying a higher price.
The UK government is currently raising more in tax revenue, as a percentage of national income, than at any time since the 1940s, according to a report published today.
As a result, The Institute for Fiscal Studies said UK households are facing an average tax rise of £3,500 a year by the next election, the biggest increase over a parliament on records dating back more than 70 years.
The IFS said that on current forecasts the Conservatives were on track to raise £100 billion more annually by 2024 than if taxes as a share of national income had stayed the same as in 2019.
It said at the time of the last general election, UK tax revenues amounted to around 33% of national income.
By the time of the next election in 2024, on current forecasts, taxes will amount to around 37% of national income – a level not sustained in the post-war period.
Although the government may decide to announce tax cuts in the run-up to the next election, the IFS said “there is no world in which this parliament – or indeed the period since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister – turns out to be anything other than a tax-raising one.”
“In fact, it is currently on track to be the biggest tax-increasing parliament since comparable records began,” it said.
The IFS said this is, in no small part, due to a raft of tax-raising measures announced over the past few years.
It highlighted the big increase in the main rate of corporation tax from 19% to 25%, the energy profits levy, and freezes to various income tax and National Insurance thresholds.
11:00am: Bank of America upgrades M&S to buy, hikes price target 52%
Marks & Spencer PLC is mispriced and has potential for upward earnings revisions.
That is the view of retail analysts at Bank of America which has upgraded the stock to buy from neutral and increased its price target by 52% to 300p from 197p before.
“M&S is delivering on its turnaround and closing its performance gap to peers,” BofA said in a research note, “yet, it continues to screen as one of the cheapest stocks amongst peers.”
The bank noted it trades on 10x 2025 P/E (peers 12x), 1.1x EV/ROCE (peers 2.0x), FCF yield 10% (peers 8%).
The bank thinks the margin potential for M&S’ clothing & home business remains a key underappreciated part of the group’s turnaround story.
Near-term, BofA expects cyclical cost of goods sold headwinds to reverse (freight, FX, markdowns) and support a 100 basis points margin uplift over 2023-25, way above the current consensus of plus 10bps.
Medium-term, better online efficiencies could help C&H to reach its 10% margin target over five years against the consensus of 8.7%.
The bank also noted the UK consumer backdrop is showing some signs of improvement, which could support consumption and sentiment for consumer discretionary equities.
A softening labour market and elevated mortgage rates remain key risks, however.
Shares in M&S rose 1.1% to 237.70p.
10:35am: Eurozone inflation cools more than expected
Consumer price inflation in the eurozone is expected to cool to 4.3% in September, more than expected, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat.
Inflation is expected to slow to a 4.3% annual rise in September from a 5.2% rise in August. Markets had expected the flash estimate to predict a 4.5% rise this month.
Euro area #inflation at 4.3% in September 2023, down from 5.2% in August. Components: food, alcohol & tobacco +8.8%, services +4.7%, other goods +4.2%, energy -4.7% – flash estimate https://t.co/kEf2Z9hOkH pic.twitter.com/SLY2o2CWEc
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) September 29, 2023
On a monthly basis, Eurostat said the inflation rate is expected to cool to a 0.3% rise in September from a 0.5% rise in August.
Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, is expected to rise 4.5% on an annual basis in September, slowing sharply from a 5.3% rise in August.
Markets expected core inflation to cool to 4.5%.
10:12am: Mortgage approvals at six month low
UK mortgage approvals have fallen to their lowest level in six months, the latest sign that the Bank of England’s rate rising spree has punctured the housing market.
The Bank of England said that net mortgage approvals for house purchases fell from 49,500 in July to 45,400 in August.
That’s the lowest number of home loans approved by lenders since February this year, and below the 47,400 consensus.
Net approvals for remortgaging saw “a significant decline” from 39,300 in July to 25,000 in August, the lowest since July 2012, the Bank said.
The ‘effective’ interest rate, the actual interest paid, on newly drawn mortgages saw a 16 basis point increase and now sits at 4.82%.
Net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals amounted to £1.6 billion in August, up from £1.3 billion in the previous month while households withdrew £0.3 billion from banks and building societies in August, following two consecutive months of net deposits.
9:55am: Aston Martin motors as Stroll ups stake
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC (LSE:AML) shares revved up on Friday morning, as Lawrence Stroll’s Yew Tree Consortium upped its majority stake in the luxury manufacturer.
Yew Tree agreed to purchase an additional 26 million shares in the company on Tuesday, lifting its holding by 3.27% to 26.23%, Aston Martin said in a statement.
Led by the Canadian businessman, Yew Tree had initially built a majority stake in 2020, seeing Stroll become Aston Martin’s executive chairman.
“The company has delivered a major turnaround since the Yew Tree Consortium’s initial investment three years ago,” Stroll commented.
Shares are 11.6% at 291.40p.
9:23am: JD Sports gets Nike boost
Top of the FTSE risers is JD Sports Fashion PLC (LSE:JD.) – shares up 5.8%, after well received results from Nike after the US close on Thursday.
The Eugene, Oregon-based sports retailer said in the three months to August 31, the financial first quarter, revenue rose 2% to $12.94 billion from $12.69 billion the year prior, but net income of $1.45 billion was down 1% from $1.47 billion.
Revenue was a touch below Street expectations, held back by a fall in North America, but earnings were much better than hoped.
Peel Hunt pointed out within the results, EMEA was one of the better performing regions (N America saw sales fall but in line with hopes, China was a sales miss).
“Of possibly the most significance was that inventory was down by 10%, which may allay fears of a lot of discounting ahead, especially in N America,” the broker said.
Peel Hunt also noted there “was a positive “shout out” to JD as a key partner during the call.”
JPMorgan saw the read across to underlying trends in the sector as overall positive, with better than expected demand in North America, a solid performance in EMEA, expansion in gross margins
8:59am: Future leaps on relief trading is in line
Future PLC (LSE:FUTR) is a big mover on Friday after saying it expects full-year operating profit in line with expectations despite mixed trading conditions.
Shares have jumed 14% to 813.50p on the news.
Peel Hunt said there “no surprises with the trading update today for Future, if anything a relief that there is not another downgrade for the company.”
The platform for specialist media, behind brands such as Marie Claire and Country Life, said it was a resilient performance despite continued macroeconomic volatility impacting the sector.
Audience numbers have stabilised in the second half and the group has had positive month-on-month momentum in the final quarter, it said.
However, Future said overall trading conditions remained mixed, with challenges in consumer spending and the digital advertising market.
As a result, advertising and affiliates product trends are broadly in line with the first half, as expected, despite a robust Prime Day in July.
Go.Compare revenue has accelerated in the second half, reflecting favourable market volumes with consumers looking for value, while magazine revenue has remained resilient, it added.
Foreign exchange has been a headwind in the second half, given currency movements in the period, Future said.
8:46am: UK economy in better shape than thought
The revised economic growth figures has given a boost to equities and the pound.
UK gross domestic product is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2023, unrevised.
It is now estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1, revised up from 0.1%, whilst growth across all quarters of 2022 is unrevised.
➡️ https://t.co/H2PEz3rJrw pic.twitter.com/qJ5sznDfD4
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 29, 2023
Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said: “The UK economy has shown signs of life. GDP is now 1.8% ahead of pre-pandemic levels as the economy grew 0.2% in the second quarter from the first three months of the year.”
“Crucially, GDP was up 0.6% from the same period the previous year, which was better than expected and has given the pound a shove in the right direction.”
Today’s figures from the Office for National Statistics showed unrevised growth in the second quarter of 2023 of 0.2%, but a better than previously reported outcome for the first quarter – growth of 0.3% compared to 0.1% previously reported.
But it’s the revisions to the post-pandemic era which have caught the eye with UK GDP is now estimated to be 1.8% above pre-pandemic levels by the second quarter of this year.
Previously, the UK economy was assumed to have shrunk, since Covid, lagging other G7 economies.
Today’s GDP report shows that the UK economy grew faster than other G7 rivals in 2022 (with growth revised up from 4.1% to 4.3%), and also in 2021 (with 8.7% growth).
The EY ITEM Club said: “revisions to GDP mean the latest national accounts confirmed a much stronger economic recovery in 2021 than earlier estimates had shown.”
“And the previous story of the economy seeing only negligible growth since then also saw some improvement.”
“However, the EY ITEM Club thinks sluggishness will characterise activity for the near future,” it added.
8:18am: Stocks bounce on brighter economic outlook
The FTSE 100 has opened higher after upward revisions to economic growth figures lifted the mood.
At 8:15am London’s lead index was up 50.65 points, 0.7%, at 7,652.50 while the FTSE 250 leapt 153.46 points, 0.9%, at 18,252.14.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics show UK GDP increased an unrevised 0.2% in the second quarter of the year, although the estimate for the first quarter was revised up to 0.3% from 0.1%.
The ONS also reported that the UK economy’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has been faster than previously thought.
UK GDP is now estimated to be 1.8% above pre-pandemic levels by the second quarter of this year, the ONS said.
Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said for now it means the UK “no longer is the G7’s straggler.”
“Nonetheless, a stable picture might take some time to emerge, given that statistical authorities in other countries are revising their data too,” he added.
On today’s figures, Tombs said he continues to think that a recession will be avoided in the second half of this year.
In company the big story was Severn Trent’s £1 billion fundraise and plans for £12.9 billion of investment between 2025-2030.
It seems to have gone down well in the City with shares marked up 3.5%.
Future PLC (LSE:FUTR) is also higher, up 8.4%, after it said it expected profits in line with expectations.
Peel Hunt said there “no surprises with the trading update today for Future, if anything a relief that there is not another downgrade for the company.”
8:00am: GDP grows 0.2% in Q2, first quarter growth revised up
We’ve had the latest estimate for UK gross domestic product in the second quarter and it confirms the economy grew marginally between April and June.
The figures from the Office for National Statistics show UK GDP increased an unrevised 0.2% in the second quarter of the year, although the estimate for the first quarter was revised up to 0.3% from 0.1%.
In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by a 1.2% increase in the production sector while the household saving ratio grew by 9.1% up from 7.9% in the first quarter.
Separately, the ONS reported that the underlying current account deficit excluding precious metals increased by £7.1 billion to £28.5 billion in the second quarter of the year.
7:50am: Severn Trent in £1 billion fundraise; plans to cut leaks and spills
Big news from Severn Trent today.
The water firm plans to raise £1 billion including a £500 investment from Qatar Investment Authority and a £500m placing.
The announcement came as the water company unveiled plans to invest £12.9 billion between 2025-2030 as part of its business plan for the regulatory period beginning April 1 2025 and ending March 31 2030.
Severn Trent said the plan includes £12.9 billion of total expenditure across its network, including £5.0 billion of investment focused on enhancing capacity and service beyond current levels, almost all of which is focused on the environment.
It said it would ensure Severn Trent Water is responsibly funded from the outset, with average gearing of 65.2% expected as it continues to target investment grade credit rating of BBB+/Baa1.
Under the plan and calculated at 2022/23 prices, the average annual household bill will be £518 by 2029/30 (2024/25: £379), an average monthly increase of £2.32 over the five-year period.
It said measures would include a 16% reduction in leakage and a 30% reduction in spills from storm overflows.
The water company said it has made a good start to the financial year though the expected reduction in finance costs will be less than previously guided as a result.
Capital investment is expected towards the top end of our guidance range, at around £1 billion.
The business plan is expected to create up to 7,000 jobs directly and will be submitted to Ofwat in October.
Alongside the placing, a retail offer of €8 million will also take place.
7:00am: Sluggish start expected in London
The FTSE 100 is expected to make a sluggish start on Friday ahead of GDP figures in the UK and inflation data in the Eurozone and the US.
Spread betting firms are calling London’s lead index up by just 2 points after closing up 8.63 points at 7,601.85 on Thursday.
“As we come to the end of the week, month, and quarter it’s not been a great quarter for equity markets. There’s been a significant shift in sentiment over the summer as economic data has deteriorated and expectations around how long interest rates are likely to stay high have shifted well into 2024,” said Michael Hewson at CMC Markets.
On a quiet day for corporate news, the final reading for second quarter GDP will provide an early focus while later in the session the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditure figures will be released.
[ad_2]
Source link