French business climate deteriorates again, inflationary pressures remain high

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The PMI indices for November, also published this morning, also point to a deterioration in the economic outlook. The composite index fell in November to 44.5, compared with 44.6 in October. For the sixth month in a row, the index is below the 50 threshold. According to the survey, it was manufacturing that was the main drag on activity, with manufacturers recording their sharpest fall in production since May 2020. Order books and business expectations are down in both the services and manufacturing sectors. Worryingly, the survey continues to point to significant inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector, where inflation has accelerated compared with October. This is obviously bad news for the European Central Bank as this indicates that disinflation will take time in France. Inflation is likely to remain close to 4% for the next few months, and it will probably be 2025 before consumer price inflation in France returns to 2%. We expect inflation, according to the harmonised index, to be 2.5% at the end of 2024 and 1.9% at the end of 2025.

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