Air Warfare, Global

Dassault’s Rafale fighter jet is the backbone of French air power (French Air and Space Force on X)

BELFAST — France has moved closer to securing two new Rafale fighter jet orders by opening talks with India and Saudi Arabia, which could potentially see Dassault manufacture an additional 80 aircraft.

But as lucrative as those prospects are, fresh uncertainty concerning the Future Combat Air System (FCAS)/SCAF next generation fighter project — featuring France, Germany and Spain — threatens to overshadow them.

Earlier this week, The Times newspaper reported that Germany “may” decide to walk away from the program and join the rival Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) fronted by Italy, Japan and the UK. A German ministry of defense spokesperson told Breaking Defense that story was “false,” but analysts say that the strained industrial relations between Berlin and Paris continues to cause trouble.

Past tension between Airbus and Dassault over a Phase 1B demonstrator contract, required for the two manufacturers to develop a first version of the FCAS next generation fighter, ended in December 2022 with a belated contract signature. Reportedly, difficulties around flight control systems were the main cause of dispute. Despite the smiles at the signing, an uncomfortable partnership remains.

“My understanding … is that Dassault is considered the bad guy in the game because they still block agreements on some elements of workshare [with Airbus] and on IPR’s [Intellectual Property Rights],” said Christian Molling, research director at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Paul Lever, a former British ambassador to Germany, said that while he had “no specific knowledge” about Germany considering a FCAS exit, if he was to “cynically speculate” on why a story might have emerged on the subject, and put himself in the position of a German procurement official “fed up with excessive French demands on work and design share,” there would be no “better way to put the frighteners on them [France] than to leak a story of this kind to a British journalist.”

Officially, Berlin sees matters very differently and continues to put trust in FCAS.

“Germany is sticking to the joint project with France and Spain,” added the German MoD spokesperson. “Media reports that Germany is pulling out are false. The first [FCAS] demonstrator is currently being built. We are on the right track here and will continue on this path.”

French officials confirmed that Germany remained engaged in the FCAS project, adding that they had no idea what purported facts The Times had based its article on.

France And Germany: FCAS Partners, Fourth-Gen Opponents

However FCAS developments unfold, political jostling could also work against France on the Rafale deal to Saudi Arabia. Requirements in KSA for additional fourth-gen fighters effectively pits France and Germany against each other, as Germany is part of the four-nation Eurofighter consortium. Right now, Berlin is blocking the sale of Eurofighters to Saudi due to the conflict with Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen, but the UK is pushing hard for Germany to relent; should London and Berlin work out a deal, it would all but end France’s Rafale hopes.

Sebastien Lecornu, France’s defense minister, told reporters last month that “discussions” to secure a sale were underway, without providing further details, according to the French newswire service AFP.

Riyadh has specifically asked Dassault for a “costed proposal” for 54 Rafale aircraft by Nov. 10, French business newspaper La Tribune Dimanche reported recently.

The Saudi Arabia Ministry of Defence did not reply to a request for comment. “Dassault Aviation does not [offer] comment,” a spokesperson for the manufacturer told Breaking Defense .

More certain for France is an order from the Indian Navy for 26 Rafale naval configured jets. The French DGA defense procurement agency received a few days ago an official request for proposal from India’s defense ministry, which officially launches contract negotiations. The deal was first announced by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last July when he was the guest of honor at France’s Bastille Day celebrations.

The latest deal comes after France completed delivery of 36 Rafale aircraft to India last year.

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