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Former Cyprus foreign minister Nikos Christodoulides led the first round of the island’s presidential election on Sunday, but fell short of a majority and will face a run-off vote next weekend.

Christodoulides, took 32 per cent of the vote, followed closely by seasoned diplomat Andreas Mavroyiannis, who surprised many by getting 29.6 per cent.

Averof Neofytou, leader of the centre-right Democratic Rally party, falls out of the race, marking a shift in the island’s politics.

All three leading candidates have close ties with outgoing rightwing president Nicos Anastasiades and are all considered part of the Cyprus political establishment.

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Christodoulides, 49, was a government spokesman before serving as foreign minister from 2018 to 2022 under Anastasiades. His decision to run as an independent candidate dealt a heavy blow to Democratic Rally, splitting its vote between him and Neofytou, 61.

Opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s voting suggested up to one-third of Democratic Rally party members would back the former foreign minister.

Neofytou has led the centre-right party since 2013 and during the campaign stressed his political experience and ability to provide stability. Any Democratic Rally endorsement of either of the two remaining candidates could have a significant effect on the final result.

Neofytou was meeting Anastasiades and other members of Democratic Rally on Sunday night to determine whether he will support Christodoulides in the second round. “Maybe Neofytou will ask in exchange to keep the leadership of Democratic Rally, or he might decide to take revenge on both Anastasiades and Christodoulides and tell everyone to support Mavroyiannis instead,” said Fiona Mullen, director of Sapienta, a consultancy in Nicosia, who stressed that things would become more clear in the next couple of days.

Mavroyiannis, 66, is known for his role as chief negotiator during talks with north Cyprus on the reunification of the divided island, which has been split since Turkey invaded in 1974. Backed by the opposition Akel party, Mavroyiannis promised during his campaign that he would bring a breath of fresh air to the presidency after Anastasiades’ 10 years in power.

Analysts said Cyprus’s “clientelistic” approach to politics had intensified during the campaign in the Greek Cypriot south of the island, which has a population of just 1.2mn people.

“All party members have been reminded in these last two weeks why they owe their loyalty to specific candidates,” said Mullen.

The new president and his government will be expected to tackle challenges including high inflation, the rising cost of living, the restart of deadlocked negotiations with Turkish Cypriots, and the urgent need to upgrade the island’s power grid.