‘Executive tension’: NZ’s weather wars – official papers reveal safety concerns, conflict between Niwa, MetService

The level of tension between Niwa and MetService has reached executive levels and public safety is at risk until New Zealand’s weather forecasting structure and systems can be sorted out, according to new documents.

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Treasury has not held back in its advice to six Government Ministers, saying that current settings are “not well positioned to protect public safety”, and that there are material risks because of the separation of Niwa and MetService, the two publicly owned weather agencies.

As the Herald revealed in May, the Government was seeking advice on the situation and last week Cabinet announced a major review of the weather forecasting system.

The terms of reference of that review do not rule out a merger of the two agencies.

“The current settings of MetService and Niwa may be inefficient and could lead to public safety risk through conflicting messaging,” say the terms of reference.

“The review will outline a number of options, including a preferred option, for the most appropriate and financially sustainable institutional and structural arrangements for MetSevice and Niwa.”

In additional documents released to the NZ Herald under the Official Information Act, Treasury officials told the Government in March that the respective cultures of MetService and Niwa were “different”.

“Historically, there has been tension between the companies at the executive level, given the competition and overlap of services.”

Niwa is a Crown research institute, set up with a broader climate research mandate in the early 1990s. MetService is a state-owned enterprise tasked with providing weather forecasting, updates and warnings.

But in recent times – most notably during severe weather such as this year’s Auckland floods and Cyclone Gabrielle – Niwa has been an increasingly active weather forecaster, in media commentary and on social media.

Philip Duncan, who set up privately owned WeatherWatch 16 years ago, told the Herald in May it was leading to confusion and mixed messages for the public.

“There’s no other country on Earth that’s got two government departments competing in weather, commercially. They’re not even working together, they don’t like each other. They don’t use the same technology. It is so ridiculous.”

In the newly released documents, Treasury says, “we are seeing risks materialising from the existing weather forecasting system arrangements with respect to MetService and Niwa”.

“We consider that the current settings do not optimise New Zealand’s climate change and weather forecasting capability, infrastructure and data and are not well positioned to protect public safety, respond to climate change and the increased frequency and impact of severe weather events.”

Treasury said MetService, in correspondence, had raised concerns that over time competition with Niwa “has increased and they are unable to collaborate as originally envisaged”.

“This has resulted in two wholly Crown-owned companies operating in a single system and providing overlapping services in a self-focused way.”

Both companies were also proposing to invest in similar infrastructure, systems and capabilities.

As well as conflicting advice and potential safety risks, it could also lead to “inefficient deployment of resources and investment”.

The paper paints the context of the growing importance – and difficulty – of weather forecasting given climate change impacts.

According to MetService, the document says, forecasting the intensity of weather events is becoming more difficult “due to unprecedented atmospheric forces”.

“A particular example was the Auckland floods on 27 January 2023, where neither the MetService nor the Niwa models predicted the peak rainfall intensity of the event.”

Meanwhile, the thunderstorm warning system is different from the broad-scale severe weather warning system.

“Currently forecasters can predict severe thunderstorms but they cannot precisely predict when [or] where they will occur or their intensity.

“A connected weather forecasting system where intelligence between entities can be shared and effectively communicated is critical to support emergency management entities in their decision-making during severe weather events.”

Officials did make clear that problems stemmed from the “setting of these companies” rather than an individual company or the models they operated under.

The document also noted previous media attention focused on the relationship between the two entities. “Any proposed changes to the current settings may bring additional media attention and communication risks.”

The Treasury report was delivered to Finance Minister Grant Robertson, Associate Finance Ministers Megan Woods and David Parker, then Transport Minister Michael Wood, Minister of Research, Science and Innovation Ayesha Verrall, and State-Owned Enterprises Minister Duncan Webb.

In an officials’ report, in June, a paper said one of the risks of the project was that media coverage focused on the relationship between Niwa and MetService “rather than the broader outcomes being sought from the review”.

“There is also a risk that the reason for the review may be incorrectly perceived as a reflection on either MetService’s or Niwa’s performance.”

Webb announced last week that the Government had commissioned the review into the weather forecasting system.

His press release made no specific mention of the public safety concerns raised by Treasury.

“We must ensure our weather forecasting system is cohesive,” he said. “A connected weather forecasting system that is integrated with our understanding of flooding impacts on communities and our nation’s infrastructure is essential.”

MetService and Niwa have been approached for comment on the documents.