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Nearly one week after the expiration of the ultimatum issued by the West African regional block – ECOWAS for the new military rulers in the Republic of Niger to return to barracks and reinstall the former president Mohammed Bazoum, the military junta who goes by the tantalizing official title of the “National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland “ is dug in, in Niamey and has so far appointed a civilian prime minister and showing no sign to back down.
President Bola Tinubu, current chair of the ECOWAS sub – regional group was clearly rattled by the July 26th overthrow of Mr. Bazoum, barely few weeks after the Nigerian leader stressed that any military takeover or any other form of attaining power short of the ballot box in the region would not be accepted.
However, the hasty ultimatum for the successful coup makers to turn over their golden trophy plainly belittles the risk they took in their venture. To be overrun by the ECOWAS forces, if ever, it can be mustered and the risk of a coup making business is almost the same. And the question ECOWAS did not answer or rather did not pose is if they the junta ever turns over power and restore the deposed Mr. Bazoum, what is in, for them. Would they remain in the country’s armed forces whose Commander in Chief, would be the same man they toppled or go into exile and to be accepted by which country.
A Nigerian offer of exile would definitely be spurned as the junta would easily remember how former Liberian president Mr. Charles Taylor who accepted an AU brokered agreement to step down from power along with exile in Nigeria was betrayed and ended up in the western backed criminal court in the Hague where a long prison sentence is handed to him. He is serving a sentence in a British prison, after having willingly stepped from his country, s presidency as of the A.U mediated settlement. Alternatively to hand power over as ECOWAS demanded, secured at a high risk and get shot in return as the ultimate consequences of coup making or sentenced to long prison terms is no alternative to any rational person or persons. From the logic of the risks that the junta members took in organizing the successful putsch and the risk of fighting a foreign Intervention till death is one and the same thing and honour simply implies the latter.
Therefore, giving them a marching order to quit and hand power back to the deposed president was a geopolitical fantasy that the Nigeria- prodded ECOWAS ultimatum did not think through.
The American and French troops in Niger jointly numbering nearly 2500 , could have easily saved Mr. Bazoum , since the coup unfolded very slowly with the military high command initially indecisive whether to back the presidential guards who spear headed it. Even the United States that Nigerian elites like to mimic claimed that the events in Niger is still a developing one and not yet a coup. Both France and the US dutifully asked their service men to stay ensconed in their barracks, while ‘democracy’ was under assault, in Niamey. While, Mr Bazoum’s top patrons in Paris and Washington sat on the fence to watch how events are unfolding , the “ Johnny just come” Nigerian President launched tirade and dragging out ECOWAS to issue a worthless ultimatum , thereby, giving the Niger military junta the oxygen it desperately needs to boast its nationalist credentials and enhance their popular legitimacy .
Since the ECOWAS threats of invasion, ordinary Citizens have been pouring out on public avenues to show their support to the “National Council for the safeguard of the Homeland “as the junta styled themselves.
ECOWAS leaders and especially the Nigerian leader brandishing democracy credentials should realistically understand that democracy is fragile in the region because it is yet to acquire the key condition for its own survival, which is the improvement in the living condition of life for the majority of the people .
Even within the military, while its top and hierarchy can understand the practical meaning of democracy because their living condition is on the upscale, the rank and file soldier experiencing hard life of misery under democracy as the rest of the larger society may not convince himself or herself that the fight for “democracy” in a foreign land is worth the while.
To fight for the defence of the country is easily understood but to fight for abstract thing as democacy would be seemingly an unworthy cause to fight for. To those bread has been buttered “by democracy should never forget, a large swath of the population in the sub- region are still waiting for its modest dividends. President Tinubu and his colleague in the region should neither romanticise nor fetishize.
Democray, but must take practical steps to make it , attractive so that Citizens every. Where in the region can defend it, without Prodding. To help elect as government, which citizens in the region do, is one thing and to have the government work for them and improve their conditions is another thing.
The notorious history of military rule in the region, despite their often messainic rehtoric does not lend any credibility that welcoming them is a rational choice. But the impunity of the elected governments in the region, their propensity to ride roughshod on citizens makes the military look so much as the only credible opposition .
In the specific instance of the coup in Niger Republic, the regional body ECOWAS has little room to maneuver. Punitive and prolonged economic sanctions would back lash at Nigeria, whose more than seven states share common border with Niger. And as the sanctions bite harder, the more ordinary Nigerens would see their deposed civilian regime as puppet of some foreign powers desperate to foist him back at all costs. Their anti foreign sentiments will be boom to the junta who though, might be bankrupt in any idea of governance would certainly harvest to dig in.
The most credible alternative to ECOWAS sabre – rattling at the Nigerien junta is to work out a credible transition to a return to civil rule within the shortest possible time frame. Wagging fingers at them with an ultimatum to quit and make way for the re- instatement of former president Buzoum is a road that leads to nowhere.
Onunaiju is research director, Abuja-basedThink Tank.
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