Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage points over the past five years (2018-2022), with the two extremes -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. This has not led to an adjustment of GDP growth in the previous quarters.

Growth relative to Q2 2022

Year on year, GDP decreased by 0.2 percent in Q2 2023. In the first estimate, the decrease amounted to 0.3 percent. The upward adjustment is caused by new figures on manufacturing and business services.

The overall picture has not changed. The contraction in the second quarter of 2023 is mainly because the trade balance was smaller than a year earlier.