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East Midlands businesses say the current business landscape has levelled in the past month though there has been a renewed drop in new orders.
According to the latest NatWest East Midlands PMI Business Activity Index, employment rates have fallen at their fastest rate in 2023 so far and although selling price inflation has slowed, cost pressures have built.
The monthly survey of business leaders suggests things locally are slightly worse than the UK as a whole which indicated a marginal expansion in business activity.
Demand conditions were weak, according to survey respondents, with subdued output reflecting lower new orders.
The downturn was led by manufacturing firms who saw a solid fall in new orders. Companies in the service sector, however, recorded an uptick in new business.
Companies across the East Midlands continued to register optimism in the outlook for output over the coming year.
Confidence reportedly stemmed from investment in sales and marketing, alongside hopes of stronger demand conditions.
The level of positive sentiment fell to the lowest since February, as firms mentioned the ongoing impact of high interest rates and the rising cost of living.
Nonetheless, East Midlands firms’ expectations were broadly in line with the UK average.
The survey found firms in the East Midlands recorded a renewed decrease in employment at the start of the third quarter.
Staffing numbers fell for the first time in four months, and at a marginal pace. Companies noted that redundancies and the non-replacement of voluntary leavers were behind the latest decline in workforce numbers.
Of the 12 monitored UK regions, only the North East and East Midlands registered job losses.
The level of outstanding business at East Midlands firms contracted for the tenth month running during July.
The rate of decline accelerated to the fastest since February and was quicker than the long-run series average. The drop in incomplete business was attributed to lower new orders and sufficient capacity to process incoming work.
The pace of decrease was only slightly stronger than that seen across the UK as a whole.
July data also indicated a further substantial increase in average cost burdens at East Midlands firms.
The rate of input price inflation gained pace from that seen in June and was faster than the series average.
Anecdotal evidence suggested that greater wage, fuel and energy costs drove inflation.
Although accelerating, the rate of inflation was the second-slowest since January 2021.
Service providers drove the increase, recording a marked rise in costs. Manufacturers, meanwhile, registered the first decrease in input prices since June 2020.
East Midlands firms signalled a sharp increase in output charges in July, with the pace of inflation slowing for the third month running to the softest since February 2021.
Higher selling prices were often linked to the pass-through of greater costs to customers. That said, some companies noted that lower raw material prices were reflected in slower charge inflation.
Of the 12 monitored UK areas, only Northern Ireland, Wales and the North West recorded slower upticks in selling prices.
Rashel Chowdhury, NatWest Midlands and East Regional Board, said: “East Midlands firms highlighted weaker demand conditions in July, as new orders fell for the first time since January.
“Output was broadly unchanged on the month, as backlogs of work fell solidly and at the fastest pace since April.
“Expectations meanwhile weakened amid concerns regarding high interest rates and the greater cost of living.
“At the same time, cost pressures strengthened from June as increased wage and fuel bills placed strain on margins.
“In an effort to remain competitive, the rate of selling price inflation eased to the slowest since February 2021.
“Signs of retrenchment across the private sector were seen in a return to job cuts, as firms reduced employment at the fastest pace in 2023 so far.”
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