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Dutch voters head to the polls on Wednesday in a tight parliamentary election projected to be a four-way race to be prime minister as Mark Rutte steps down after 13 years.
His liberal VVD party, a left-wing alliance led by the EU’s former climate chief Frans Timmermans, a centre-right upstart and the far-right Freedom party of Geert Wilders have all topped surveys in recent days.
In the Dutch system with 20 factions in parliament, about a fifth of the vote is enough to win the chance to try first to form a government.
The election campaign has been dominated by migration, a housing crisis squeezing out young people and lower-income families and environmental restrictions on farming in the densely packed country of 18mn.
Analysts say whoever wins will require at least three other parties to govern — a prospect that could extend government talks for months, with Rutte staying in a caretaker capacity.
His ruling coalition collapsed in July over plans to try to limit immigration by making it harder for asylum seekers to be joined by family members.
Rutte’s successor at the helm of the VVD is Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, who arrived as a girl from Turkey and has promised to reduce migrant numbers saying the Netherlands cannot cope with the more than 200,000 arrivals annually.
Centre-right newcomer Pieter Omtzigt, a former Christian Democrat who formed his New Social Contract party only in August, has suggested cutting numbers to 50,000, including those from the EU who have a right to work anywhere in the bloc.
He also wants to get more houses built and increase the minimum wage by raising some business taxes, and reform the state with a new constitutional court. Omtzigt said he would not join a coalition involving Wilders but analysts said he might be open to accepting the far right’s support from outside the government.
Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, by contrast, has not ruled out the prospect of the anti-Islam campaigner in government.
The prospect of a rightwing coalition, meanwhile, has energised voters on the left. Recent polls show gains for Timmermans, who leads a combined Labour and Green party. The former EU commissioner has urged supporters of smaller leftwing parties such as the Socialists and pro-European Volt, to unite behind him.
Even if his alliance comes in first, forming a government will be difficult, as his closest ally, the progressive, liberal D66 group, will struggle to muster more than 30 seats in the 150-strong lower chamber of parliament.
The Dutch system has no minimum threshold to enter parliament, so there is a rich array of factions from the Party for the Animals to 50 Plus, representing pensioners.
Read more on the Dutch election
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