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Markets started out in a hole and took the rest of the week to dig out, according to Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management. He spoke about market changes Friday, Aug. 4, during the Agweek Market Wrap with Randy Koenen of the Red River Farm Network.
Martinson spoke about losses for the week including Minneapolis wheat, which has traded lower in seven of the last eight sessions, down about $1. December corn dropped over the last nine sessions, almost 75 cents lower. Soybeans are the best performer, but still down $1 for the week.
Tensions between
Ukraine and Russia
seemed to calm in the news, but another drone strike on important Russian ports drove the markets higher again.
“But other than that, we’ve been waiting for this
cooler wetter conditions to come
into the Corn Belt into the northern Plains. Haven’t seen it yet,” Martinson said.
At least one system does appear to be on its way — ever so slowly. Friday morning the radar showed a large system inching across North Dakota. It was expected to be to eastern North Dakota by Saturday.
“So hopefully that means it’s bringing some good rain … and that’s what’s been forecast. This system in the next seven days is supposed to bring one to three inches across most of the areas of the western Corn Belt,” Martinson said. “
It’s desperately in need of moisture
because that’s where we saw the biggest declines in crop ratings last week.”
Koenen said a blessing has often been met with a curse this season as
hail has been striking
along with these rain showers.
Martinson agreed and brought up storm damage that occurred near Hazen, North Dakota, this week. The hail and damaging winds destroyed some of the wheat crop out there.
With acreage reports coming out, Martinson was interested to see what got planted — or didn’t.
“You know it’s interesting there was a little more (prevented planting) than I think that most realized,” Martinson said.
Koenen pointed out that the August supply and demand report comes out Friday, August 11. Martinson said the demand numbers they come out with will be important indicators for the market.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour takes place August 21-24 across the Corn Belt. Martinson said that will give a better indication of what yields farmers may expect.
Martinson said what he has seen is a smaller girth on cobs of corn. He noticed more cobs with 12 rounds compared to 14-16 rounds. That reduction in girth can equte to a 15% reduction in yield.
The livestock market saw gains this week. Friday was showing some cattle testing contract highs. One scare this week was a report that the U.S. credit rating was lowered. That actually sunk all markets a bit. The markets have been gaining back since then though. Martinson said the high temperatures across the country had detrimental effects on cattle in Nebraska and Kansas, where death losses were recorded.
Martinson shared that meat packers are short-bought and need to buy product. He has watched as they have been buying in light volumes because of negative returns. He hopes to see a seasonal increase in demand return.
Concerning the hog market, Martinson said there has been an increase in demand from China, while their hog herd also grows. That should bring some stability to the market, Martinson said.
Looking ahead, Martinson said eyes will remain on this weather system that could be switching to cooler and wetter conditions for much of the northern Plains.
(The Agweek Market Wrap is sponsored by Gateway Building Systems.)
Michael Johnson is the news editor for Agweek. He lives in rural Deer Creek, Minn., where he is starting to homestead with his two children and wife.
You can reach Michael at mjohnson@agweek.com or 218-640-2312.
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