Congress yet to approve aid renewal as Ukraine arms shortages persist

After December 30, the Pentagon has warned that funds for replenishing military aid to Ukraine will run out unless additional funding is approved by Congress. 

The Biden Administration has repeatedly emphasised the urgency of the situation, with an additional $61 billion (€55.7 billion) pending in Congress. 

Pentagon chief finance officer Michael McCord’s letter, dated December 15, outlines that the remaining $1.07 billion (€1.5 billion) for stock replenishment cannot be disbursed until 15 days after notification, leaving the Department of Defence with no available funds for further security assistance to Ukraine.

‘This is about domestic American politics, and the fact that particularly in American politics everything tends to be a bargaining chip for something else,’ Professor Mark Galeotti of UCL’s School of Slavonic & East European Studies explained to Euronews.

‘Although there are some Republicans who want to genuinely reduce the amount of aid, mainly this was about the Republicans wanting to give Biden a bloody nose. I think this is a speed bump, not a road block’

Ammunition shortages

The consequences of this funding shortfall are already evident on the ground. Ukrainian forces, facing shortages of 122mm and 152mm shells along the entire frontline, are compelled to redistribute artillery ammunition and adapt military tasks. 

Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriisk Group of Forces, has acknowledged these shortages, emphasising the need for Western security assistance.

Delays and challenges in obtaining necessary artillery ammunition may hinder Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

The situation is further complicated by the exhaustion of the presidential drawdown authority (PDA) and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). 

Although the PDA initially had around $4.4 billion (€4 billion), an overstatement of supplies in June reduced it to the current figure. Additionally, the USAI, which ran out earlier this year, received a new allocation of $300 million (€274 million) in the recent defence spending budget.

Ukrainian forces are adapting by increasingly relying on Western-provided 155mm artillery systems, but delays in assistance could affect the supply of 155mm shells. 

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister General Ivan Havrylyuk highlights the focus on domestic production of drones and plans to produce 155mm ammunition in collaboration with Western companies in 2024.

Delays in Ukraine offensives in 2024

These funding and material challenges are contributing to uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans. The decreasing ability to plan and prepare for large-scale action is evident, with potential delays in 2024 counteroffensive operations. 

Ukrainian officials, acknowledging periodic changes to operational plans, cite the significant reduction in Western aid since September 2023 as a complicating factor.

‘In some ways the timing is quite fortunate that military operations are scaled down for the winter period” Prof. Galeotti said. “A one month delay in the aid package would be irksome, but wouldn’t have a decisive impact.”

‘What would be worrisome is if this was part of a wider pattern of America scaling down aid. It would give those in Europe who are wavering to say ‘well if even the Americans don’t think this is going to work out then why should we throw money out’.

Amid this, reports suggest that Russian forces are also grappling with artillery ammunition issues, albeit at a significantly higher firing rate than Ukrainian forces. 

The geopolitical landscape further evolves with Russia’s attempts to criminalise “Russophobia” abroad and the European Union’s adoption of a sanctions package to weaken Russia’s war effort and defence industrial base.