Conagra Brands remains pressured by cautious consumers

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CHICAGO — Consumer purchasing behaviors that emphasized value continued to impact Conagra Brands Inc.’s financial performance during the second quarter of fiscal 2023. As a result, the company lowered its full-year guidance to reflect what is turning out to be a longer-than-expected downturn.

“After tremendous initial resilience in the face of a record inflation super cycle, US consumer behavior shifts did emerge last spring in our industry as the cumulative effect of inflation caused consumers to begin to stretch their budgets,” said Sean M. Connolly, president and chief executive officer, during a Jan. 4 conference call with securities analysts. “This resulted in a reprioritization of food choices as shoppers adjusted purchase behavior towards more stretchable meals.

“At that time, we told you that we expected these trends to be transitory. We still believe that to be the case. But the pace of the shift back to normal consumer behavior has been slower than we initially expected, and that pressured our volume, performance and mix in the second quarter.”

Mr. Connolly’s sentiments echoed those of Jeffrey L. Harmening, the chairman and CEO of General Mills, Inc., Minneapolis, when he discussed his company’s second-quarter results on Dec. 20. And like Conagra Brands, General Mills also lowered its full-year guidance.

Conagra Brands’ net income for the second quarter ended Nov. 26 was $286.2 million, equal to 60¢ per share on the common stock, and down 25% from the same period last year when the company earned $381.9 million, or 80¢ per share.

Quarterly sales fell 3.2% to $3.21 billion from $3.31 billion the year before.

Conagra’s Refrigerated & Frozen business unit had a sales decrease of 5.8% during the quarter to $1.3 billion. Unit volume fell 3.3% due to lower consumption trends and price/mix decreased 2.5% during the quarter. The price/mix decline was partially attributable to an increase in investments, according to the company.

In the Grocery & Snacks segment, quarterly volumes fell 3.7% and price mix ticked down 0.4%. As a result, quarterly sales fell to $1.3 billion.

The company’s International and Foodservice business units fared better during the quarter, seeing sales rise 8.1% and 4.3%, respectively. International segment sales reached $280 million, reflecting a 5.6% increase in organic net sales and a 2.5% favorable impact on foreign exchange. Volumes increased 3.3% during the quarter while price/mix contributed 2.3%.

Foodservice sales reached $295 million due to strong price/mix recovery of 6.8%. Volume sales decreased 2.5% during the quarter.

For the year, Conagra Brands lowered its organic net sales growth guidance from 1% to a decrease of 1% to 2%. Adjusted earnings per share are now forecast to be in a range of $2.60 to $2.65 per share, down from the original guidance of $2.70 to $2.75 per share.

“… From a planning posture standpoint, we are not banking on major improvement in the macro consumer environment or signing up for a huge consumer response,” Mr. Connolly said. “So, one might interpret that as we’ve got the investment in there, but what we’re banking on in return is conservative.

“Look, in this current environment, that’s probably not a bad posture to be in because this volume recovery has been more elongated than people expected. But I think that is a fair characterization of kind of what we’re looking at.”

Conagra’s net income for the first six months of fiscal 2023 rose 99% to $605.9 million, equal to $1.27 per share, and up from $304.4 million, or 63¢ per share the year before. During the first quarter of fiscal 2022, Conagra Brands recorded a loss of $77.5 million. An impairment charge of $244 million associated with the Birds Eye business contributed to the loss.

Sales for the first six months of fiscal 2023 fell 1.7% to $6.11 billion from $6.22 billion.

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