The ongoing recovery in inbound tourism, along with resilient labour market conditions, should lift consumer-facing sectors such as retail and food and beverage.
The transport and storage sector, in addition, has witnessed an acceleration in growth from 0.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter to 4.6 per cent in the second quarter, with the rebound in water transport, container throughput and total sea cargo handled.
The recent Business Expectations Survey by the Economic Development Board likewise suggests that firms think the worst may be over, and that there will be a modest uptick in conditions for the rest of the year.
Singapore’s 2023 full-year growth may still exceed 1 per cent and our house forecast is close to 1.3 per cent. This assumes that growth in the second half improves to around 2.2 per cent, up from 0.4 per cent in the first half, with the manufacturing and electronics sector stabilising and the construction and services sectors staying resilient.
Scanning the external environment, we see growing market hopes for a US soft landing amid efforts by the Federal Reserve to bring down inflation while avoiding a recession. Chinese policymakers are increasingly under pressure to deliver more aggressive policy stimulus amid weak consumer confidence and property market stresses.
Should these factors materialise, they could boost market sentiments and aid demand for regional imports.
COPING WITH THE RISING COST OF LIVING
Despite this cautious optimism, the rising cost of living is still of concern to many. Mr Lee said he asked Finance Minister Lawrence Wong to study possible enhancements to the Assurance Package, first announced in Budget 2020 to soften the impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) hikes.
In the interim, enter the Majulah Package, designed to help young seniors in their 50s and early 60s with their retirement and healthcare needs through Central Provident Fund (CPF) top-ups.
Before the S$7 billion Majulah Package, there was the S$9 billion Pioneer Generation Package in 2014 and the S$8 billion Merdeka Generation Package in 2019. One wonders if this will engender hopes among even younger generations for a fourth package in time to come.
I am also eager to see if there will be further enhancements to the Assurance Package, as GST will increase to 9 per cent in 2024.
Commentary: Will Singapore be able to avoid recession in 2023 as hoped?
[ad_1]
The ongoing recovery in inbound tourism, along with resilient labour market conditions, should lift consumer-facing sectors such as retail and food and beverage.
The transport and storage sector, in addition, has witnessed an acceleration in growth from 0.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter to 4.6 per cent in the second quarter, with the rebound in water transport, container throughput and total sea cargo handled.
The recent Business Expectations Survey by the Economic Development Board likewise suggests that firms think the worst may be over, and that there will be a modest uptick in conditions for the rest of the year.
Singapore’s 2023 full-year growth may still exceed 1 per cent and our house forecast is close to 1.3 per cent. This assumes that growth in the second half improves to around 2.2 per cent, up from 0.4 per cent in the first half, with the manufacturing and electronics sector stabilising and the construction and services sectors staying resilient.
Scanning the external environment, we see growing market hopes for a US soft landing amid efforts by the Federal Reserve to bring down inflation while avoiding a recession. Chinese policymakers are increasingly under pressure to deliver more aggressive policy stimulus amid weak consumer confidence and property market stresses.
Should these factors materialise, they could boost market sentiments and aid demand for regional imports.
COPING WITH THE RISING COST OF LIVING
Despite this cautious optimism, the rising cost of living is still of concern to many. Mr Lee said he asked Finance Minister Lawrence Wong to study possible enhancements to the Assurance Package, first announced in Budget 2020 to soften the impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) hikes.
In the interim, enter the Majulah Package, designed to help young seniors in their 50s and early 60s with their retirement and healthcare needs through Central Provident Fund (CPF) top-ups.
Before the S$7 billion Majulah Package, there was the S$9 billion Pioneer Generation Package in 2014 and the S$8 billion Merdeka Generation Package in 2019. One wonders if this will engender hopes among even younger generations for a fourth package in time to come.
I am also eager to see if there will be further enhancements to the Assurance Package, as GST will increase to 9 per cent in 2024.
[ad_2]
Source link