The African National Congress has its back against the wall ahead of next year’s election, with the party expected to lose its nationwide majority.

According to a survey by the Brenthurst Foundation, the nation is more than likely to have a coalition government as the ANC’s support has dropped massively over the last year.

The survey was conducted in September and October 2023 and questioned 1,500 registered votes.

“The ANC’s support has dropped from the 48% measured in November 2022 to just 41% in October this year with voters citing joblessness, corruption, load shedding, and crime as the country’s largest problems.”

23% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic Alliance (DA). However, the Multi-Party Charter – containing the DA, IFP, ASA, FF+ and more – would get 36% of the votes.

17% of respondents said that they would vote for the EFF.

Interestingly, the nation’s two largest parties have lost many voters over the last year. While the ANC’s support has dropped by 7%, the DA has also seen a drop in its support from 24% last October to 23% this year.

The EFF (+6%), IFP (+3%), and FF+ (+1%) all saw increases over the period.

Provincial Danger to ANC

Although the ANC still holds the most votes nationwide, it is in serious danger in South Africa’s three largest provinces.

In Gauteng, 37% is tied with the MPC, with 24% of respondents saying they would vote for the DA.

The picture is even worse in KwaZulu-Natal, with the MPC expected to hit 46% of the vote, whilst the ANC only gets 32%.

The MPC is buoyed by the IFP and DA, with 27% and 19% of respondents saying they would vote for parties, respectively.

The ANC should also not expect to make a comeback in the only province that it does not rule over, with the Western Cape likely to stay a DA stronghold.

56% of respondents said they would vote for the DA in the Western Cape, making up the vast majority of the 56% for the MPC.

The ANC, on the other hand, only got 22% of the vote.

PICK ME!

Overall, most respondents (74%) said they would be happy to see coalition governments form after next year’s election.

“The ANC faces serious political competition with the formation of the MPC, an alliance of opposition parties that includes the DA, IFP, Action SA and FF+, with a five-point difference between the combined vote of the MPC and the ANC,” the survey said.

“Although the MPC had been in existence for less than two months at the time of this survey, half of respondents recognised its brand.

“A quarter of respondents said they were more likely to vote for an opposition party following the launch of the MPC. This suggests there may be significant voter support upside in greater name recognition for the MPC and greater clarity on its policy focus and narrative.”

However, there is also the potential for an ANC-EFF coalition due to the rising support for the red berets.

This raises questions to the moderate centre about its political options unless the nation’s two largest political parties form a coalition.

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