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The data for this survey were collected in April 2023.
With this increase, business confidence continues its recovery, after being slightly negative in Q4 2022. Last year, business confidence fluctuated between 16.8 in Q2 and -0.9 in Q4.
| 2018 | Q1 | 18.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Q2 | 14.2 |
| 2018 | Q3 | 15.0 |
| 2018 | Q4 | 13.4 |
| 2019 | Q1 | 10.6 |
| 2019 | Q2 | 12.0 |
| 2019 | Q3 | 10.6 |
| 2019 | Q4 | 6.6 |
| 2020 | Q1 | 6.4 |
| 2020 | Q2 | -37.2 |
| 2020 | Q3 | -19.3 |
| 2020 | Q4 | -4.0 |
| 2021 | Q1 | -6.0 |
| 2021 | Q2 | 2.3 |
| 2021 | Q3 | 18.4 |
| 2021 | Q4 | 19.8 |
| 2022 | Q1 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | Q2 | 16.8 |
| 2022 | Q3 | 8.2 |
| 2022 | Q4 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | Q1 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | Q2 | 7.5 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Strongest rise in accommodation and food services
Confidence increased most sharply in the accommodation and food services sector. Entrepreneurs in this sector are very positive about the realised and expected turnover, whereas they were still negative about their expected turnover in the previous quarter. In addition, they expect less negative economic developments than at the beginning of the year.
The highest confidence is found in construction. Entrepreneurs in this sector are much more posiitve about their output than one quarter previously. Their sentiment about the overall order position and expected staffing levels decreased slightly, but remained positive.
Confidence fell most sharply among entrepreneurs in car maintenance and repair services. In this sector, entrepreneurs are mainly negative about their stocks; they were still positive about this in the preceding quarter. Sentiment about the turnover achieved remained unchanged, while expectations for turnover in the next few months are less positive. In the transportation and storage sector, the mood deteriorated sharply and switched to negative.
| Non-financial private sector | 7.5 | 6.4 |
|---|---|---|
| Construction | 16 | 12.6 |
| Information and communication | 13.4 | 10.2 |
| Wholesale and commission trade | 12 | 7.4 |
| Accommodation and food services | 11.5 | 3.2 |
| Business services | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| Retail trade (excl. cars) | 6.5 | 3.5 |
| Car trade and repair | 4 | 11.6 |
| Manufacturing | 3 | 3.6 |
| Mining and quarrying | -2.9 | -6.6 |
| Transportation and storage | -3.4 | 3.5 |
| Real estate activities | -3.6 | -5.5 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Less negative expectations about the economic climate
In Q2 2023, expectations about the economic climate improved again relative to the previous quarter. Expectations fell over four consecutive quarters to an all-time low in Q4 2022. Nevertheless, entrepreneurs remained predominantly negative about the development of profitability over the past three months. On balance, over 6 percent of entrepreneurs reported lower profitability in Q1 of this year compared to Q4 last year.
With the exception of construction, expectations about the economic climate are less negative in all industries this quarter than in the previous quarter. In the sectors of culture, sports and recreation, transportation and storage, information and communication, wholesale and commission trade and business services, expectations about the economic climate turned positive. Expectations were negative across all sectors in the previous quarter.
| Non-financial private sector | -3.1 | -13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Culture, sports and recreation | 7.4 | -9.5 |
| Transportation and storage | 6.4 | -10.9 |
| Information and communication | 5.2 | -6.1 |
| Wholesale and commission trade | 4 | -11.5 |
| Business services | 3.4 | -4.6 |
| Other services | -0.1 | -11.5 |
| Accommodation and food services | -0.9 | -26.4 |
| Manufacturing | -1.9 | -4.6 |
| Car trade and repair | -4.2 | -10.8 |
| Retail trade (excl. cars) | -4.4 | -24.9 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -9.8 | -19.4 |
| Mining and quarrying | -12.5 | -20.9 |
| Real estate activities | -17.6 | -22.1 |
| Construction | -26.4 | -25.8 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Fewer entrepreneurs expect sales prices to increase
On balance, 20 percent of entrepreneurs expect sales prices to rise over the next three months relative to the previous quarter. This is the lowest share since the start of 2021.
The decline is particularly evident in construction, mining and quarrying and manufacturing. Despite the sharp decline, construction is still one of the sectors with the highest share of entrepreneurs who expect a rise in sales prices over the next three months. Entrepreneurs in accommodation and food services are most likely to expect higher sales prices in Q2.
| Non-financial private sector | 20.1 | 45.8 |
|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and food services | 38.2 | 55.0 |
| Construction | 32.4 | 84.3 |
| Retail trade (excl. cars) | 28.3 | 60.1 |
| Wholesale and commission trade | 22.8 | 60.4 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | 16.5 | 13.0 |
| Car trade and repair | 15.3 | 32.8 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | 14.9 | 36.5 |
| Business services | 14.7 | 19.6 |
| Transportation and storage | 13.7 | 26.0 |
| Real estate activities | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| Manufacturing | 11.7 | 53.2 |
| Information and communication | 9.6 | 14.5 |
| Other services | 8.7 | 18.0 |
| Mining and quarrying | -4.6 | 40.5 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) is currently making several adjustments to the definition of the Business confidence indicator. The aim is to improve comparability between the sectors, and the comparability between regional and national figures. The adjustments will be implemented at the time when the figures on Q3 2023 are published. More information is published on this website.
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