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The data for this survey were collected in October.
Business confidence was in sharp decline from end of 2021 until end of 2022. This was followed by tentative recovery as of 2023, but the indicator remained negative. At the start of Q4 2023, the sentiment indicator showed a slight drop again. Confidence has been below the average of the series, which stands at -3.9.
| 2018 | January | 17.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | April | 13.9 |
| 2018 | July | 11.5 |
| 2018 | October | 8.9 |
| 2019 | January | 4.0 |
| 2019 | April | 2.4 |
| 2019 | July | 0.9 |
| 2019 | October | -4.6 |
| 2020 | January | -1.6 |
| 2020 | April | -51.9 |
| 2020 | July | -22.8 |
| 2020 | October | -15.9 |
| 2021 | January | -11.4 |
| 2021 | April | 0.0 |
| 2021 | July | 11.9 |
| 2021 | October | 12.9 |
| 2022 | January | -0.6 |
| 2022 | April | -9.9 |
| 2022 | July | -12.5 |
| 2022 | October | -22.2 |
| 2023 | January | -13.2 |
| 2023 | April | -8.1 |
| 2023 | July | -8.3 |
| 2023 | October | -10.1 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
More negative mood in most sectors
In almost all sectors, entrepreneurial sentiment was negative at the start of Q4. Only in the information and communication sector are entrepreneurs slightly positive on balance. The mood there has improved for four quarters in a row. The strongest decline was seen in transportation and storage and in manufacturing. Confidence among entrepreneurs in real estate and mining and quarrying showed the most significant increase, but still remained negative. The sentiment indicator is lowest in the construction sector and in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. However, building contractors are still positive on balance about most other indicators in the survey, including output and turnover developments, although the survey results are less positive than in the preceding quarters of 2023.
| Total (excl. financial and public sector) | -10.1 | -8.3 |
|---|---|---|
| Information and communication | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Business services | -2.3 | -3.9 |
| Mining and quarrying | -2.4 | -7.8 |
| Real estate activities | -7.1 | -13.3 |
| Wholesale and commission trade | -8.3 | -7.4 |
| Transportation and storage | -8.4 | -2.1 |
| Retail trade (excl. cars) | -10.4 | -6.0 |
| Manufacturing | -13.0 | -7.3 |
| Accommodation and food services | -13.1 | -10.8 |
| Other services | -14.7 | -10.4 |
| Car trade and repair | -14.8 | -10.0 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -18.3 | -13.1 |
| Construction | -24.3 | -24.5 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
More entrepreneurs see lack of demand as the main obstacle
At the beginning of Q4 2023, nearly 20 percent of entrepreneurs perceived insufficient demand as the largest obstacle in their business operations. One year previously, this was still slightly under 14 percent. It is the sixth consecutive quarter in which the number of entrepreneurs stating that obstacle has increased. Relatively the largest shares are active in transportation and storage or in manufacturing. However, the primary obstacle in terms of business operations still is the lack of staff, as indicated by over 40 percent of entrepreneurs. Insufficient production resources affect slightly more than 9 percent, down from over 20 percent one year previously. Over 31 percent do not experience any obstacles.
| 2018 | januari | 9.0 | 20.5 | 4.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | april | 8.4 | 22.4 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | juli | 8.2 | 28.1 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | oktober | 8.7 | 29.6 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | januari | 9.1 | 27.0 | 5.5 |
| 2019 | april | 9.3 | 27.2 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | juli | 11.0 | 28.3 | 4.2 |
| 2019 | oktober | 11.6 | 28.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | januari | 13.9 | 25.3 | 3.9 |
| 2020 | april | 22.9 | 11.0 | 5.4 |
| 2020 | juli | 28.6 | 11.2 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | oktober | 26.2 | 13.0 | 4.5 |
| 2021 | januari | 22.6 | 11.9 | 4.8 |
| 2021 | april | 19.5 | 15.2 | 9.0 |
| 2021 | juli | 14.7 | 27.9 | 15.4 |
| 2021 | oktober | 11.9 | 37.3 | 16.9 |
| 2022 | januari | 11.5 | 34.2 | 16.8 |
| 2022 | april | 10.3 | 42.3 | 23.8 |
| 2022 | juli | 11.2 | 47.7 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | oktober | 13.7 | 46.6 | 20.6 |
| 2023 | januari | 14.5 | 42.5 | 15.6 |
| 2023 | april | 16.0 | 40.8 | 13.3 |
| 2023 | juli | 16.4 | 40.6 | 11.7 |
| 2023 | oktober | 19.5 | 40.3 | 9.2 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||||
Turnover, staffing and investments expected to increase in 2024
Despite negative business confidence in Q4 2023, the overall outlook for 2024 is positive in terms of turnover, staffing and investments and shows only a minor difference with last year’s outlook. On balance, more than 17 percent of entrepreneurs anticipate higher turnover in 2024 than in 2023. The turnover outlook for next year is more positive than last year, but still less optimistic than in the eight preceding years. Especially in agriculture, forestry and fisheries and in renting, buying and selling of real estate, the expected turnover increase is higher than last year.
In addition, on balance over 14 percent of entrepreneurs expect to have more staff in 2024 relative to 2023. This share is lower than one year previously, especially in transportation and storage and in manufacturing. Over 4 percent (on balance) of entrepreneurs say they will invest more in 2024 compared to 2023. The outlook varies widely among the sectors; for example, in real estate activities, almost 30 percent say it does, and over 23 percent in retail trade. On the other hand, investments are expected to be lower next year among entrepreneurs in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction, and accommodation and food services.
| 2018 | 30.4 | 17.2 | 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | 17.8 | 3.9 | -6.3 |
| 2021 | 37.2 | 29.1 | 15.3 |
| 2022 | 13.7 | 16.2 | 3.4 |
| 2023 | 17.4 | 14.3 | 4.4 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | |||
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