Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news mainland Chinese buyers are again very active in Sydney’s new housing markets.

But first, there were just under 220,000 US jobless claims last week which was not as big a fall as was expected. (The seasonally adjusted number was higher.) There are now just under 1.7 mln people of these assistance programs.

All eyes are now on non-farm payrolls, and it is expect these will have risen only a modest +180,000 in April when the data is released tomorrow morning. The number of layoffs in April came in at their lowest level of the year.

And the American trade deficit came in at its lowest in four months, and its second lowest since November 2020. Exports rose +2.1%, imports fell marginally.

Canada’s widely-watched Ivey PMI slipped slightly but is still expanding at a very solid rate.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to a small contraction in April which mirrored the official PMI contraction. But analysts had expected the Caixin PMI to be a bit better than that. It was not to be. The latest result was the first contraction in factory activity since January, amid an ongoing property downturn and fears of a global slowdown. New orders shrank after rising in March, while employment declined the most in 3 months.

Hong Kong reported its March retail sales overnight and they were strong, even after accepting they were off an unusually low base. The strong recovery of inbound tourism helped.

The ECB raised its benchmark policy rate by another +25 bps overnight to 3.75%. This was as expected. The previous three rises had been +50 bps each, and is up from zero in July 2022. They also signaled they won’t be reinvesting all its QE holdings as each tranche matures, letting it run off at the rate of -€15 bln per month. Essentially they are signalling their recovery is now on track on a solid enough footing to ease off the loose money policies put in place for the pandemic.

European producer prices continued their retreat in March and are now ‘only’ +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Recall they were up by more than +40% in August last year at the peak of the pressures.

Australia’s trade surplus rose to +AU$15.3 bln in March from an upwardly revised result in the previous month, handily beating market forecasts of +US$12.7 bln and their second largest on record (in June 2022). It was founded on strong mineral exports. Total exports to China, the country’s largest trade partner, surged by more than +28% and now account for 17% of all goods exports.

Staying in Australia, the latest NAB Residential Property Survey found the overall share of foreign buyers in new property markets rose to almost 8% in the March quarter, up from 5.2% in Q4-2022. Buyers from China are driving this. The sharp rise was underpinned by +16% rise in NSW, up from 6.7% in the previous quarter. Foreign buyer market share in NSW is now at its highest level in eight years. Even before lockdowns were lifted, Foreign Investment Review Board figures show approved mainland Chinese investment in residential real estate totalled AU$1 bln in Q3-2022. It reached only AU$2.4 bln for the entire prior financial year.

Global container freight rates slipped again last week but only marginally as they have reached -34% below their 10 year average (even if this does include the pandemic spike). Bulk cargo rates were little changed too.

Global air passenger traffic in March rose strongly from depressed year-ago levels but it is still -12% lower than pre-pandemic levels. It is domestic travel that has made the best recovery. The weakest sector is international travel in the Asia/Pacific region.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.37%, and down another -3 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2-10 yield curve is less inverted at -39 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged by -137 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now more inverted by -120 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.27% and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.78%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.16%, and that is down -2 bps from this time yesterday.

Wall Street is down -0.8% on the S&P500 in its Thursday trade. More woes from regional bank stocks are depressing this market. Overnight, European markets were all down about -0.6% except London which fell -1.1%. Yesterday Tokyo was closed for a holiday. Hong Kong recovered +1.3% and Shanghai up +0.8% in its first day back. Yesterday, the ASX200 ended down a minor -0.1% while the NZX50 ended up +0.5% in a late burst higher.

The price of gold will start today at US$2046/oz and up another +US$23 from this time yesterday. (Remember its all-time high was US$2070 on August 6, 2020.)

And oil prices have stabilised from yesterday to be just under US$69/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$73/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is +½c firmer against the USD and now at 63 USc. Against the Aussie we are also +½c firmer at 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +½c at 57.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.7 and up +40 bps since this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price is firmer today, now at US$28,829 and up +1.3% this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».