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Take-home pay has grown in South Africa, with good news coming out of the local job market in Q3.
BankservAfrica’s latest Take-Home Pay Index (BTPI) saw a notable increase in August following a strong rise in July.
“The average nominal pay for August reached R15,578, representing a 5.8% increase on the R14,717 recorded in August 2022,” said Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica’s Head of Stakeholder Engagements.
“The August figure was also higher than July’s R15,525.”
Nominal salaries improved in July and August following a stabilisation in Q2, despite the overarching negative narrative surrounding the economy.
Some industries have also become more resilient to the effects of load shedding, with the latest S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index – which looks at the operating conditions of the private sector – going above the neutral 50 mark in August for the first time in six months.
This indicates that the private sector is working in better conditions, which, if sustained, could improve employment and remuneration prospects.
The average real take-home pay increased by 0.9% compared to last year, the second positive annual growth rate since September 2021.
That said, real take-home pay did decline slightly from R14,346 in July to R14,284 in August.
“While the somewhat higher levels of real take-home pay in the past two months are heartening, it has partly been driven by a notable moderation in consumer inflation,” said Elize Kruger, an Independent Economist.
Headline inflation dropped from 7.1% in March to 4.8% in August, reducing the erosion of purchasing power that South African households had to grapple with.
However, risks to inflation still remain, with further fuel hikes on the cards for consumers.
Petrol and diesel increases are expected to be around R1.00/l and R1.50/l in early October, respectively, bringing the cumulative increases over a three-month period to roughly R3/l for petrol and R5/l for diesel.
Although these fuel increases are likely to push headline inflation into a range of 5.5% to 5.9% over the next few months, consumer inflation for the year is expected to drop from 6.9% in 2022 to 6.0% in 2023, with a further moderation to 5.2% expected in 2024.
That said, interest rates are likely to stay elevated due to the inflation risks caused by the rand’s depreciation and the higher fuel prices.
“This will result in interest rates remaining elevated for some more months, with all other challenges remaining. With household finances already under severe pressure, this scenario remains negative for consumer spending and confidence levels,” said Kruger.
Nevertheless, the BankservAfrica data adjusted for weekly payments suggests that there has been a slight improvement in the job market in Q3.
According to the clearing house, 187,500 more salaries were paid in July and August, which offset the Q2 losses of 198,000. However, this also confirmed the sideways trend in the number of salaries paid in 2023.
“With the economic realities largely unchanged into the second half of the year, the job market is likely to remain lacklustre in the remainder of 2023,” said Kruger.
The BankservAfrica Private Pensions Index (BPPI) also dropped marginally in nominal and real terms in August, however, it remains in positive territory on an annual basis.
“The average nominal private pension moved to R10 741 in August compared to the previous month’s R10 983, but still 6.2% higher than one year earlier,” said Naidoo.
In real terms, the average private pension in Agusut 2023 came out at R9,773, which is a 1.3% improvement compared to the prior year, meaning that the purchasing power of pensions has remained strong despite high inflation.
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