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For the first time in 2023, Eskom’s weekly energy availability factor (EAF) is better than the same period recorded in 2022 and 2021 – but the credit for lower levels of load shedding may lie elsewhere.
This is because the EAF for Eskom’s fleet remains below 60% and far below the 65% minimum set by energy regulator Nersa, and data shows that energy supply hasn’t necessarily improved all that much.
Instead, the reprieve from load shedding appears to be thanks to much lower demand – and a significant uptake of rooftop solar in 2023 is helping things along.
These are some of the findings from the latest statistics published by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan, tracking Eskom’s multitude of datapoints and trying to give context to the current performance of the fleet.
Previous years of operation show that Eskom’s EAF tends to drop significantly in the last few months of the year, with the utility unable to maintain a 65% level in 2021 and 2022.
2023 has been the worst year for EAF so far, starting in January below 50% and only managing to peak at just under 60% near the middle of the year.
However, in recent weeks, the utility has managed to turn the tides slightly, showing an upward trajectory in the near term and even beating the EAF recorded in week 41 in both 2021 and 2022 – the first time that has happened this year.
But the turn for Eskom and load shedding isn’t solely in the EAF. As many South Africans would have experienced for themselves, load shedding has also eased up significantly over the past few weeks, with Eskom now suspending outages daily.
While this has happened previously during winter, the country has now entered into the summer months, where industries have picked up and planned maintenance has increased.
Typically, this places more pressure on the grid and, as was the case in 2022, could lead to higher stages of load shedding.
However, the current data points to load shedding – specifically the blackout rate – easing, with week 41 again showing a better position than both 2021 and 2022.
This is partly thanks to lower unplanned losses, which have also shown an improvement in recent weeks, despite planned outages staying fairly on track with previous years.
Essentially, breakdowns are lower, so more power is online.
Supply and demand
According to Jordaan, the turn for the energy situation isn’t necessarily because Eskom is improving significantly but rather because demand has dropped significantly.
Looking at the power being supplied by Eskom, the group is still tracking lower than the previous two years and is still falling short of the country’s typical demand profile.
The path is pointing upwards, and the return of units at Kusile will definitely boost power availability, but the group still has some way to go to meeting demand.
On the demand side, however, the data shows that the country has pulled below the typical demand profile and is much lower than what was seen in 2021 and 2022.
One of the explanations for this could be the surge in self-generation and renewable generation in the country – especially rooftop solar.
According to Jordaan, since the start of 2023, South Africans have almost doubled their potential rooftop PV capacity: from an accumulated 2.6 GWp by December 2022 to 4.9 GWp by September 2023, as estimated by Eskom in its weekly system status reports.
“Supply chain constraints and waiting for the formulation of the PV panel tax incentives affected the monthly rate of newly added capacity. Looking beyond these factors, however, it would appear as if there is an annual cyclical pattern evident in rooftop PV uptake that waxes from around October,” Jordaan said.
Read: Eskom eases load shedding slightly – here’s the latest schedule
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