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England’s injury list
England’s preparations have been rocked by the news that Jack Leach, who would have been a certain starter for the first Test at Edgbaston, has been ruled out of the series with a stress fracture in his back.
The 31-year-old spinner had been an ever-present under the leadership of Ben Stokes and was labelled by former captain Michael Vaughan as England’s key player.
Leach took four wickets in the Test win over Ireland but experienced pain in his back on Saturday. As a precaution, he was sent for a scan on Sunday, which revealed the injury. He is expected to be ruled out for much of the rest of the year.
England were on Monday mulling who to call up. All-rounders Rehan Ahmed, Will Jacks and Liam Livingstone have debuted for England under Stokes and Brendon McCullum, but they do have more experienced options in Hampshire’s Liam Dawson or perhaps even Moeen Ali, who retired from Test cricket in 2021 but could be open to a U-turn.
James Anderson and Ollie Robinson sat out the Test against Ireland as they were put on ice for the Ashes.
Anderson (groin) and Robinson (ankle) are both being handled with extreme care. They trained with the squad at Lord’s on Monday before the Ireland Test but did not bowl.
With Jofra Archer and Olly Stone already out for the summer, the importance of Mark Wood’s pace has grown, and risks will not be taken with him either.
“For the first Ashes Test, I think they should be fit,” McCullum said of Anderson and Robinson.
The current fit and available fast-bowling department consists of Matthew Potts, Stuart Broad, Chris Woakes and Josh Tongue, who was a surprise selection for the Ireland Test. Brydon Carse is also out until the third Test at the earliest while Jamie Overton is out for the whole summer.
What is the recent history of the Ashes?
Seventeen months on from their latest winless tour of Australia (it is now 12 years since they last won a Test Down Under), England will begin their quest to regain the Ashes for the first time since 2017.
Ben Stokes’s side have an awful lot going for them, winning 10 of their first 12 Tests under his captaincy, and also enjoy a superior record in the past five home series against their most venerable opponent, four of which were won and the last, in 2019, drawn.
After losing the first Ashes of the 21st century 4-1 on Steve Waugh’s last tour here, England won back the Ashes in memorable style in 2005, regained them in 2009, both times by margins of 2-1, retained them 3-0 in 2013, won them back by 3-2 in 2015 and rallied to square the series 2-2 four years ago even though they were unable to prevent the holders preserving their possession of the urn.
In the 1980s and 1990s England’s home Ashes series were elongated to encompass six Tests but since the conclusion of Australia’s 1997 tour they have been wisely reduced to five and that remains the format this time around.
There is one significant and controversial difference, however because of the 50-over World Cup in October, which England will begin as defending champions, and the desire of the England and Wales Cricket Board to give its Hundred competition an August showcase, the marquee Test series will take part before high summer and only the final Test will be held after the state schools break up for the long holiday.
What is our prediction?
There have been merely two draws in 13 Tests in England following the Covid summer of 2020 and none in the past 10, writes Rob Bagchi. In 2015 every Test yielded a positive result and it would be fair to hazard that with good weather, England’s aggressive tactics, Australia’s brilliant attack, a more durable batch of Dukes balls and a home Ashes swansong for Messrs Broad and Anderson (84 and 44 Ashes wickets in England respectively, though Anderson managed only four overs in 2019), that all five Tests will end with a victor. England’s excellent home record of late and their refreshing approach persuades this observer to plump for a repeat of 2015 in terms of series result but with closer matches: England 3-2 Australia.
What Australia are saying
Steve Smith, Australia’s vice-captain, has said winning the Ashes in England is something he wants “to tick off my bucket list”.
Australia have not won in England since 2001, losing four straight series between 2005 and 2015, before drawing in 2019.
“Every game you play for your country is important, certainly the Ashes series here, it’s one that’s eluded us,” Smith said. “We got close last time but couldn’t quite get over the line.
“It’s something that I’d certainly like to tick off my bucket list, winning an Ashes series here.”
On Jack Leach’s injury, Smith added: “It’s a real shame, he’s done really well for England in the last 18 months in particular and it’s going to be some big shoes for them to fill.
“I feel for him, you always want to be involved in the big Ashes series so hopefully he recovers well.”
Meanwhile, David Warner, is hoping to improve his record in England in his final Ashes series.
The 103-Test veteran, who will retire in January, faces a fierce examination from India in this week’s World Test Championship final at the Oval, before going up against his old sparring partner Stuart Broad, who dismissed him seven times in the 2019 Ashes with the Australian averaging just 9.5.
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