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1. What does Turkey want?
It’s demanding that Sweden extradite suspected Kurdish militants and alleged coup-plotters wanted by Turkey and stop supporters of Kurdish movements in Sweden displaying their allegiances openly. (Sweden’s laws on freedom of speech make it hard for the government to stifle public expressions of support for Kurdish independence.) Initially Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opposed Finland’s bid too. But it lifted that block while effectively deferring a decision on Sweden’s membership bid until after the Nordic country’s new anti-terrorism laws go into force in June. The Swedish law, long in the works, will ban participation in a terrorist organization and give authorities tools to intervene in terrorist activity at an earlier stage. The other holdout, Hungary, also approved Finland’s entry while delaying a decision on Sweden. Hungary’s ruling party has linked that to a clash inside the European Union over the rule of law.
2. What’s Turkey’s problem with the Kurds?
The Kurds are an Indo-European people, about 30 million strong, and one of the world’s largest ethnic groups without a state of their own. Their homeland is divided among Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The PKK has fought Turkish forces on and off since the mid-1980s as it seeks an autonomous region for Kurds inside Turkey. Turkey is particularly focused on the People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a Kurdish militia in Syria that was instrumental in the defeat of the Islamic State there. Turkey views the YPG as a security threat due to its ties to separatist Kurds in Turkey.
3. Why is Sweden involved?
Sweden has long sought to promote human rights and respect for minorities abroad, and the country’s welcome of refugees has made it home to as many as 100,000 Kurds. Some are Turkish opposition members sought by Erdogan’s government. Sweden has tended to align with other European nations in the way it treats Kurdish demands for self-determination and was the first country after Turkey to designate the PKK as a terrorist organization, in 1984. Erdogan wants some 120 individuals extradited, while Sweden has said it can’t just hand people over without due process. The country’s Supreme Court, which makes decisions on extradition requests, has rejected appeals from Turkey on various grounds, including risk of persecution. “Since they could do not give them to us, it is not possible for us to look positively to Sweden,” Erdogan said on March 17. “That’s why we had to separate Sweden from Finland.”
4. Why does the dispute matter?
Sweden and Finland conduct military exercises with NATO and increasingly share intelligence with it. However, they didn’t join the group earlier for historical reasons. Having Sweden and Finland in the alliance would arguably make it easier to stabilize the security of the area around the Baltic Sea and to defend NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Those countries are often seen as potential targets for Russian aggression. Including Finland and Sweden would add to NATO two sophisticated, well-equipped militaries whose gear is already compatible with that used by the alliance. It would double the length of NATO’s border with Russia, which now comprises just 6% of Russia’s land perimeter, and enable the alliance to improve its surveillance of the country’s western flank.
5. What are the chances of a resolution?
Erdogan faces presidential and parliamentary elections in May and maintaining a tough stance against Sweden could consolidate his support in nationalist circles. The Nordic countries fulfill NATO’s criteria and their terrorism legislation and treatment of Kurds align with those of alliance members. The US, the most powerful country in the alliance, has repeatedly urged Turkey to ratify their applications, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly said that Sweden has delivered on the pledges it made to Turkey in an agreement between the countries signed in June last year. The tougher law that’s entering into force in Sweden June 1 may help sway Erdogan’s mind. The Turkish president said talks with Sweden will continue.
6. Where does this leave Finland?
While joining NATO improves Finnish security, doing so without Sweden risks hampering supply routes and NATO’s ability to provide security guarantees. It would also entail rolling back some close military cooperation the two counties have developed over the years, if Sweden’s accession is significantly delayed.
–With assistance from Onur Ant, Firat Kozok and Kati Pohjanpalo.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
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