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A new report from the Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) says Sudbury, Ont.,’s economy should perform better than both Canada and Ontario in the coming year.
Last year, Sudbury’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.1 per cent, but CBoC said it will grow by 1.4 per cent this year, 2.0 per cent in 2024 and 1.3 per cent in 2025, according to a summary of that report.
The provincial forecast for this year shows a 0.9 per cent gain, compared to a 0.7 per cent gain for Canada, according to CBoC senior economist Robin Wiebe.
“That makes Sudbury a pretty good bet to have a good recovery and to have a decent economy in the future,” Wiebe said.
Sudbury’s report is part of CBoC’s Major Cities Insights, which covers 24 cities in Canada this year. The reports are tailored to economic development groups and corporations.
The report states high nickel demand will drive Sudbury’s economy. The number of jobs in resource extraction and utilities rose by 20 per cent between 2020 and 2022, reaching a 14-year high.
Immigration program successful
Sudbury has faced worker shortages since before the pandemic, said Meredith Armstrong, the city’s economic development director. However, she said the city has received some outside help.
Sudbury is one of 11 communities taking part in the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot. Armstrong said it brought 500 newcomers to the city last year, including the family members of prospective workers.
However, Armstrong said in order for workforce growth to happen, a city must meet all of a family’s needs, from jobs to housing to recreation. It also must make sure it’s attractive to businesses looking to expand.
“The challenges with workforce really underscore the urgency of pulling on all threads at once, so there’s no one silver bullet,” Armstrong said.
Low unemployment rates are a challenge for growing businesses, which have a harder time finding workers. The report states employment is the highest it’s been since at least 1990.
CBoC expects that rate to continue growing slightly in the coming years, including a 0.2 per cent increase in 2023.
As more of Sudbury’s workforce reaches retirement age, it could be even harder to find workers, said Wiebe.
Unequal performance
The report summary said the retail, hospitality and entertainment sectors are facing bigger challenges. Although entertainment and hospitality grew in 2022, they are still below pre-pandemic levels and are expected to stay down until at least 2027.
“Some of the workers that they had, have moved on to other jobs,” said Weibe, adding that weakness in the economy has made some people hesitant to travel.
Retail sales jumped by eight per cent in 2021 and 10.9 per cent in 2022, exceeding their pre-pandemic levels, but CBoC said that sector will shrink by 4.6 per cent this year before slowly growing again.
Slowdowns in home sales have led to drops in the finance, insurance and real estate sectors.
Wiebe said as mineral demand continues to increase, he was “cautiously optimistic” about the city’s future, provided there’s enough workers.
“If I was a business looking to expand, I would consider putting a modest amount of fresh resources into Sudbury,” he said.
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