The year 2023 had its fair share of surprises, mostly pleasant. The conflict in Ukraine did not widen into a direct confrontation between Russia and Nato. The US economy did not go into a recession. Global economic growth did not slow down as much as feared. The Indian economy fared much better than forecast.

For your columnist, one event in distant Africa stood out. It was the ability of the Houthi militia in Yemen to strike a big blow to global trade by disrupting the flow of cargo traffic in the Red Sea. The Houthis’ action was a response to Israel’s refusal to end its assault on Gaza. It demonstrated a newfound capability on the part of a non-state actor to influence events and derail the world economy.

Click here to follow our WhatsApp channel

The Houthis in Yemen have emerged triumphant from a civil war lasting several years against the government of the country. They now control the North of the country, including the capital of Sanaa and the Red Sea coastline. The recognised government has received backing from Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have the support of Iran.

Non-state actors have been mostly known to carry out sporadic acts of terrorism or engage in civil wars. Al Qaeda is famously associated with the 9/11 assault on the World Trade Center in New York. The Taliban was engaged in a civil war in Afghanistan, but it was the government of Afghanistan before being dislodged. Isis was engaged in civil wars in Iraq and Syria. Neither the Taliban nor Isis sought to project itself as a force in any conflict outside its immediate sphere of interest.

The Houthis have chosen to confront the world’s leading powers in a matter that does not involve them, namely, the conflict in Gaza as supporters of their long-suffering Muslim brethren. Other Muslim nations such as Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states have been mostly content with issuing statements and asking for a ceasefire. They have been averse to measures such as economic sanctions or severing of diplomatic relations with Israel.

In stark contrast, the Houthis of Yemen have fired drones and missiles at Israel, albeit without success, as the missiles were intercepted along the route. They have had conspicuous success in another area, namely in disrupting merchant traffic bound for or departing from the ports of Israel via the Red Sea. Initially, the Houthis targeted ships owned by Israelis. Last November, they hijacked a cargo ship owned by an Israeli magnate and steered it towards their shores.

Thereafter, the Houthis said they would target any merchant ship carrying cargo related to Israel. There followed several attacks on merchant ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait near the Red Sea. Major shipping companies immediately announced a suspension of their operations in the Red Sea area.

The move threatened to seriously disrupt international trade. The Bab el- Mandeb strait is seen as one of three critical “chokepoints” in international shipping, the other two being the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca. Analysts estimate that the Red Sea accounts for 10 per cent of sea-borne crude oil and 30 per cent of global container traffic.

The United States has responded by setting up a maritime coalition of 10 nations that will protect convoys of ships passing through the Red Sea. Only the US and UK, however, have contributed warships to the effort. None of the major Arab states is willing to participate. Arab and Western governments are mindful of public anger over Israel’s offensive against Gaza and the potential for retaliation from the Houthis. 

The maritime coalition has failed to deter Houthi attacks although only one strike thus far has caused damage to a ship. The Houthis themselves have lost three boats and their crew in a confrontation with the US navy. This week, the Houthis upped the ante by firing a barrage of drones and missiles at the coalition’s warships. Analysts say that even a mighty power such as the US faces military and political limitations in dealing with the Houthi attacks.

Warships carry a limited number of missiles. These can be overwhelmed by swarms of drones and missile barrages. The warships may not be able to replenish the missiles at sea and may have to head for the nearest port, leaving cargo vessels in danger. The drones used by the Houthis cost $2,000 apiece; the missiles the US uses cost $20 million each. The world is waking up to newer dimensions of “asymmetric warfare”. A less powerful opponent in a conflict can gain an advantage through the use of appropriate military tactics, particularly in terrain that is proximate and familiar.

American warships can best protect themselves through retaliatory strikes against Houthi drone and missile launch sites. However, such retaliation would mean a significant escalation in the conflict and an extended American involvement in the area.  That is hardly what an American President seeking re-election wants in an election year. The Saudis, who had been at war with the Houthis for years, are working towards a settlement. They do not want the US to undermine such a settlement by retaliating against the Houthis.

These considerations apart, there is a profound asymmetry in the situations in which the Houthis and the US and its allies are placed. The Houthis are a non-state actor. They are not constrained by the United Nations, diplomatic relations, or even sanctions. They are not subject to democratic accountability. As a result, their threshold for pain is high — they can take enormous losses of lives. Not so the US. If a single American warship were to sink, it could take the American Presidency with it.

It is not the Houthis alone who have surprised the world through asymmetric warfare. The ability of the Hamas militia to fend off the powerful Israeli military for over three months now has been another revelation. In Gaza, the potent factor is not just urban warfare but Hamas’ clever use of a vast underground tunnel network, said to be bigger than the London Underground.

What is to stop other armed groups and small states from gaining sophistication in asymmetric warfare and mounting serious challenges to the international system? Food for thought in the New Year, dramatically underscored by the unfolding saga in the seas off Yemen.