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Energy analyst Clyde Mallison says that South Africa could hit stage 9 load shedding in June if the country is hit with cold snaps.
South Africans need to prepare themselves for higher stages of load shedding in the coming months as the country heads into winter – and power utility Eskom is already struggling to keep the lights on.
The company announced that all-day stage 6 load shedding would be implemented until further notice after it got hit with further breakdowns at its power stations on Wednesday night (12 April).
Eskom lost a unit at the Medupi power station in the evening, adding to the breakdowns at other stations during the day, delays in returning units to service, and others being taken offline for scheduled repairs.
According to Eskom, it only had 24,700MW of generating capacity available versus demand of 31,400, necessitating the stage 6 load shedding.
Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said last week that South Africa’s supply and demand profile is typically 27,000MW/32,000MW during the summer months – and this is likely to jump to 27,000MW/37,000MW in winter.
With over 17,500MW taken offline overnight, Eskom’s breakdowns are already beyond its planned risk level of 17,200MW offline, which spells bad news for the coming months.
The group’s latest Generation Adequacy Report presents a dismal picture for winter, with the group’s likely risk scenario showing red across the board – pointing to above two stages of load shedding throughout.
Ramokgopa has warned that it will be an extremely difficult time.
According to data plotted by director at Virtual Energy and Power, Clyde Mallison, South Africa’s winter load shedding could go as high as stage 9 if the weather turns into a cold snap.
The energy expert said that Eskom’s demand forecasts are “generally pretty accurate”. However, “they predict for a full year, and so can get tripped up, especially by cold snaps in winter,” he said.
Plotting data based on these forecasts, as well as scenarios where Eskom is able to use ‘unrestrained’ diesel spend to supplement power supply, Mallison showed what June 2023 is shaping up to be like in the country.
In a scenario where Eskom’s diesel spend is limited by budget, the situation changes, and the shortfalls become more prominent.
“If we have a cold snap in June, that corresponds with the average coal fleet performance assumption, and we use our diesel budget at this time, we could see up to stage 9 (load shedding),” he said.
The plots show the monthly average for each hour of the day. Daily plots show much more variation. If we have a cold snap in June, that corresponds with the average coal fleet performance assumption, and we use our diesel budget at this time, we could see up to stage 9.
— Clyde Mallinson (@ClydeMallinson) April 7, 2023
Notably, stage 9 load shedding does not yet exist. South Africa’s load shedding stages currently go up to 8, with work underway to revise these. However, Eskom broadly defines each stage of load shedding as 1,000MW being taken offline, so stage 9 would be 9,000MW.
This is in line with Ramokgopa’s assessment that the country could face a shortfall of up to 10,000MW in winter.
Diesel
Ramokgopa said that the government should not shy away from spending more money to deal with Eskom’s electricity crisis, including making sacrifices to fund the utility’s diesel spend.
Speaking to Reuters, he said that if South African borrowing costs had to rise to fund diesel purchases, then that was a necessary trade-off given the impact outages were having on unemployment and growth prospects.
During a media presentation last week he said that tough choices had to be made to navigate the crisis, and that every decision would have a drawback.
However, even an unrestrained diesel budget comes with its hurdles. Eskom previously noted that there are physical limitations to how much diesel it can actually use, as the reserves need to be refilled and the fuel needs to be transported.
In its outlook presentations, it has noted that it is practically and physically limited to burning through around R2.4 billion in diesel a month. In those same presentations, it pointed to having to spend far more than that to keep load shedding restrained.
Read: Eskom needs more money, says electricity minister
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