Over the course of November, the fate of over 5,000 candidates in the fray in five assembly elections were sealed. According to political observers, a close contest is expected in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and in Telangana.

In Rajasthan, the incumbent Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government stares at the revolving door pattern in the state, where voters have changed governments every five years for the past quarter century. Based on that precedent, the BJP is in a position to win back power.

In Madhya Pradesh, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s reign of nearly 15 years has brought about fatigue. The BJP has had an uninterrupted spell in power since 2003, except for a brief 15-month period after the 2018 polls, when the Congress managed to form the government. The Kamal Nath-led Congress has campaigned heavily this time to ride on anti-incumbency, and welfare and caste politics.

India’s newest state, Telangana, is just a decade old and in that time has only seen one party in power—the Bharat Rashtra Samithi. Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao is hoping to clinch a third term, but his government faces anti-incumbency at the local level. The Congress, energised by its victory in neighbouring Karnataka in May, has campaigned fiercely and is expected to gain significantly. The BJP is likely to be a marginal player.