Economist paints mixed picture for Tulsa, state

Since the first quarter of 2020, the state has added 35,000 jobs, with about 25,000 in the Tulsa and Oklahoma City metro areas and 10,000 in the rest of the state.

“This what I would suggest is a very healthy mix,” said Mark Snead, president and economist at RegionTrack Inc. of Oklahoma City. “This is a remarkably healthy source of job growth.”

Snead made the remarks Wednesday at the Tulsa Regional Chamber’s State of the Economy and Tulsa’s Future 2023 Annual Meeting at the Renaissance Tulsa Hotel & Convention Center. About 500 people attended.

He said the good news for Tulsa and Tulsa County is that population continues to grow at a steady pace and demand for labor is strong.

However, he said, next year labor demand could fall to virtually flat as companies’ demand for employees could drop with a tight Federal Reserve interest-rate policy still aimed at curbing inflation.

Tulsa has had a 4.2% growth in retail sales in the last 12 months, he said.

“The city is showing remarkable strength,” he said, adding that while the city of Tulsa continues to be the retail center of the county, other cities such as Broken Arrow and Owasso continue to take more of the metro area’s retail sales.

“I wouldn’t really view this as particularly concerning,” he said. “This is the long-term path the city was on as the suburbs continue to erode some of this retail power from the central city,” he said.

“Retail sales in the county are still above inflation at this point, so quite healthy,” he said.

He said that while Oklahoma City has been on “a roller coaster” with jobs in the energy industry since 1990, it has rebounded to having about 10,000 such jobs currently.

“Tulsa has never really seen that revival,” he said, adding that there are 3,700 to 3,800 such jobs here.

“So it is really acting as a drag on the economy, both in the long run, because of the (lack of) high-wage jobs, and in the short run since the pandemic,” Snead said.

He said the number of area jobs in the energy industry is likely to remain flat for at least the next year.

Stephen Jury, managing director of JPMorgan Private Bank and global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities specialists, also spoke at Wednesday’s event.

He said the notion that China will become the world’s largest economy — overtaking the U.S. — is not likely, nor is the notion that the dollar will fall from the world’s top currency standard.

“I don’t meet people who say to me, ‘Can you help me get into Russia? Can you help me get into South Africa, or even the U.K.?” Jury’s native country, he said. “They say, ‘Can you help me get into the United States?'”

“A lot of people say to me the U.S. is declining in influence and the dollar won’t be the world’s reserve currency anymore. And I look at them and I say, ‘What on Earth are you talking about?'”

“There’s no alternative to the dollar’s reserve status. You need to start acknowledging that the United States is the best economy, the most innovative economy, the best research facilities, and you should be proud of that, of being an American,” he said, generating applause.