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Blackout data for South Africa is showing a huge positive shift, with the recent spate of load shedding suspensions pushing trendlines in a much better direction.
The latest Power Blackout Statistics for South Africa, compiled by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan, shows that blackout hour trends have plateaued over the past few weeks as Eskom halted outages for extended periods of time.
In September, South Africa was on track to experience double the number of total blackout hours seen in 2022 by mid-October. However, now in the last week of the month, blackout hours are still below this position.
While this is by no means the end of load shedding, nor does it erase the utter destruction caused by record levels of load shedding this year, it does mark the first time that projections have taken a decidedly positive turn in 2023.
According to Jordaan, South Africans have experienced a cumulative 64.2 days of blackouts (time without any power at all) for 2023 so far, having added 0.3 days at the end of last week.
However, a sustained narrowing of the power supply gap over the last five weeks clipped the full-year projection by seven days.
“Currently, at 79.6 days, it is the lowest projection for 2023 and has now retreated some 21 days from the high of 101 days (predicted) at the end of May,” he said.
The positive turn is also reflected in the trend data.
Looking at the week (7-day) moving average, the load shedding suspensions are having a clear impact, with blackout times reaching the lowest levels this year so far.
Quarterly, the trend line has also taken a turn and is once again moving in the right direction, though off a slightly higher base from the stage 6 load shedding that hit in September.
Notably, however, is the annual trendline, which has also turned and moving downward after almost a full year of constant climbing.
“The balance of influence is now firmly carried by the short-term downward momentum,” Jordaan said.
Minister in the Presidency for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said on Monday that South Africa was beginning to turn a corner on resolving the electricity crisis.
Improved performance of Eskom’s generating fleet meant the suspension of load shedding over the past weekend and much lower stages of the planned power outages during the week.
“We have turned the corner, although we are not out of the woods yet. We are beginning to show sustained improved performance over an extended period of time and this is good news in that it’s an affirmation and validation of the work that the team is doing at Eskom,” he said.
The Minister said the intensification of maintenance plans at Eskom are beginning to have a positive impact despite a difficult period in September when load shedding was intensified as a result of maintenance outages.
These maintenance outages are aimed at reducing the incidence of generating units tripping on their own and improving performance.
“These plans that have been put into motion are beginning to bear fruit. I did indicate some time ago when we were experiencing heightened levels of load shedding Stage 6, that essentially what we are dealing with is short term pain which is going to result in long term gain and we are beginning to see the kinds of gains that I was referring to.
“Our actions are deliberate. We are going to invest a lot of our efforts to ensure that we are able to maintain the units,” he said.
While the boost for the power situation is being attributed to efforts at Eskom, data shows that pressure on the grid is also being eased by much lower demand from customers.
This is in part thanks to a boom in rooftop solar generation, which has almost doubled in 2023.
Read: Good news for inverters and batteries in South Africa
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