BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s economic output could return to pre-crisis levels toward the end of 2021 if the coronavirus pandemic remained under control through winter and restrictions were gradually lifted at the beginning of next year, the DIW economic institute said.

The German economy will grow by 5.3% next year, after shrinking by 5.1% in 2020 as two lockdowns to curb infections hit growth in Europe’s largest economy, DIW said on Thursday.

“If this is not successful and the restrictions continue well into spring, economic output in Germany in 2021 could be one and a half percentage points lower than in the more optimistic scenario,” DIW said in a statement.

Germany has been in partial lockdown for six weeks, with bars and restaurants closed but shops and schools open, but the number of daily new cases climbed to a record level on Thursday.