Reaching a consensus on the final G20 document at the summit in New Delhi next week just got tougher as Russia has threatened to block it if Moscow’s views on the Ukraine war are not reflected in the document.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who will represent Russia at the summit, has made this clear. The summit, under India’s presidency, will be held in New Delhi on September 9 and 10.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi early this week to convey his inability to be present at the summit. The ongoing Ukraine war, which has reached a critical stage and is likely to intensify in the coming days, has compelled the Russian President to stay back in Moscow. He said Lavrov, a seasoned diplomat, will represent Russia at the summit where other world leaders will also be present.

But there is a likelihood that the Chinese President Xi Jinping may also skip the meet. China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang if Xi stays away. The strain in Sino-Indian relations over the disputed boundary issue may have been the reason behind the Chinese President’s decision.

Adopting a final document at the summit that everybody agrees was always going to be a challenge for host India in a group that’s sharply divided over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The US-led western countries in the G20 are making every effort to ensure that the document includes the group’s support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russia.

The G20 represents 19 leading economies in the world, and the European Union. It also accounts for 85 percent of the global economy and two-thirds of its population.

The Group of Seven, or G7, comprising all the major western countries, are a key component of the G20 and have been very vocal against Russia.
Since the war began in Ukraine in February 2022, the US and Europe have used every international and regional platform to condemn Russia for its aggression. The western countries have also imposed crippling sanctions on Russia and supplied Ukraine with sophisticated arms to counter the Russian troops.

However, their relentless effort has not been able to build a consensus in the G20 to either condemn Russia or impose sanctions on Moscow, as most non-western countries in the group have refused to do so.

India is among the countries that has refused to join the western dispensation in condemning Russia or imposing sanctions on it. Russia is a close strategic partner of India and its largest supplier of weapons.

Several other countries in the G20 are also ambivalent about condemning Russia or imposing sanctions on it.

US treasury secretary Janet Yellen will be arriving in New Delhi on the eve of the summit to confer with the members to express its support for Ukraine, and get them to endorse a fresh set of sanctions on Russia.

The western countries view the Ukraine war as the biggest challenge for the world. However, beyond the western bloc, few countries have agreed to give it the same importance.

Interestingly, the US-led western campaign on Ukraine came shortly after its withdrawal from Afghanistan after a 20-year-long failed war. Questions were raised in some quarters on the US’s attempt to project Ukraine as a human rights tragedy, totally ignoring the situation of the hapless Afghan people in war-torn Afghanistan.

The global south, which is made up of the poor and developing countries in Asia, Africa, the Pacific islands, and Latin America, has mostly stayed neutral on the Ukraine war and refused to condemn Russia.

Most countries in the global south have been struggling for the past few years due to disruption in the supply of food, fuel, and other essentials because of the pandemic and the Ukraine war. The indifference of the rich western economies to their plight during this period has determined the global south’s stand on Ukraine. The G20 presidency rotates among its members in alphabetical order.

India has made it clear that it will be the voice of the global south and the top priority of its G20 presidency will be to highlight the suffering of poor and developing nations.

India has also stressed that none of the problems and the challenges that the world faces today can be addressed effectively without the support and cooperation of the rich countries in the west.

Therefore, during important meetings in the run-up to the summit, its focus has been on building a consensus among the members on adopting urgent steps to mitigate the plight of the poor nations in the world. A number of leaders of the global south who have been invited for the summit will be present at the meeting next week.

India has been trying to act as a bridge between the global north and the south. Russia has extended full support to the G20 under India’s presidency and has promised to back any effort that will ease the suffering of the global south.

Its ambassador to India, Denis Alipov, has suggested that if the topic of Ukraine is steered clear of, and there are other issues on which there is a consensus, then an agreed final document can be adopted at the summit.
The next few days will be a challenge for India as it tries to build consensus on a document that can be released at the end of the summit.