World’s wealth managers look to Asia in response to shift in global affluence

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We tend to think of wealth as a stockpile: an accumulation of assets, stored in property, financial instruments, gold and cash. Locked in a safe, if you like, behind bolted doors. And stationary.

But in truth, money is always on the move: from sellers to buyers, debtors to creditors, owners to heirs and taxpayers to the public purse. And right now it is all turning over faster than ever before.

Asian fortunes to grow fastest in next five years. Slope charts showing financial assets, liabilities and real assets for global regions

The richest generation in history — the baby boomers — is steadily shuffling off the mortal coil and passing on their money to (mainly) their children. Meanwhile, the explosive expansion of the tech industry — most of it in the US — is simultaneously sucking up and blowing out funds at a hyperactive rate. And, the economic rise of China and its neighbours is creating vast new fortunes in Asia.

Hong Kong forecast to overtake Switzerland as world’s top cross-border wealth management hub. Chart showing cross border wealth management by country. Hong Kong is set to have the most assets under management by 2027, surpassing Switzerland

After a decade of expansion in financial markets boosted the rich in many parts of the globe, the overall growth in assets has stalled, making the regional, generational and sectoral shifts even more significant than before, not least for wealth managers.

Global wealth creation. Charts showing the number of High net worth individuals with assets of at least $1mn, Ultra high net worth individuals of at least £30mn and billionaires

Not surprisingly, the world’s wealth managers are also on the move. The latest annual global wealth report from Boston Consulting Group, published this summer, is rightly called Resetting the Course. The title reflects both the short-term pressures on wealth managers to adjust client portfolios after the battering suffered in the difficult markets of 2022, and the long-term need to respond to the shifts in world wealth.

Number of ultra-wealthy expected to increase the most in US and China. Chart showing the forecast growth in population of ultra high net worth individuals of at least £30mn (2022-27)

Overall, BCG forecasts the personal assets around the world to recover from their marginal 1 per cent expansion last year to an average of 5 per cent over the five years to the end of 2027, close to its long-term rate this century.

But in Asia (excluding slow-growth Japan), fortunes are predicted to rise faster, powered by an average 7.8 per cent annual increase in financial assets, well above the 5.3 per cent global average.

As a result, the multinational financial hubs that dominate the world wealth management business, will see Asian centres growing faster than their North American or European rivals. In particular, Switzerland, today’s largest centre, is forecast by BCG to be surpassed by Hong Kong by 2025. Singapore is expected to expand even faster, but from a smaller base, so it will remain in third place, says the report.

The Gulf states will also see exceptional growth, predicted at 9.6 per cent a year, compared with 9 per cent for Singapore and 7.6 per cent for Hong Kong (and a global average for cross-border wealth centres of 4.9 per cent). The Middle East is profiting not only from the oil-fuelled rise of local fortunes but also from a significant switch of Russian money out of Europe in the shadow of the war in Ukraine.

As BCG carefully points out, the Gulf’s advantages include “low regulatory barriers to launching businesses”. So a good place to bring money in from other countries, to get away from anything from bureaucracy and high taxes to political instability.

The conclusion for the European and North American banks that dominate the top of the wealth management market is clear — keep investing in the emerging centres of Asia. It’s no accident that, as UBS, the world’s biggest wealth manager, digests Credit Suisse, the rival it took over this year in a rescue, it is putting particular emphasis in retaining the defunct bank’s Asia-based resources.

Its competitors, such as Julius Baer, are also expanding in the region. And local banks are steadily raising the quality of their services, sometimes through partnerships with western banks.

The deal is not without its risks. But when the world of wealth is on the move, it is an even bigger risk not to move with it.

Stefan Wagstyl is the editor of FT Wealth and FT Money. Follow Stefan @stefanwagstyl

This article is part of FT Wealth, a section providing in-depth coverage of philanthropy, entrepreneurs, family offices, as well as alternative and impact investment



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