Power utility Eskom says that all-day stage 4 load shedding will continue for the rest of the week – while economists warn that outages could get worse as the season changes.

Updating its earlier announcement on Thursday (31 August), Eskom said that stage 4 load shedding will now continue to be implemented daily until 05h00 on Sunday.

Thereafter, stage 2 load shedding will be implemented until 16h00.

“This is necessary due to the need to recover emergency generation reserves, and the generation maintenance to be implemented in preparation for the coming week,” it said.

Thursday, 31 August

Friday, 1 September

Saturday, 2 September

Sunday, 3 September

• Stage 4: 00h00 to 05h00
• Stage 2: 05h00 onwards

Breakdowns are currently at 14,953MW of generating capacity – below the group’s target of 15,000MW – while the generating capacity out of service for planned maintenance is 5,914MW.

In the last 12 hours, a generating unit at Arnot and Kriel power stations were taken offline for repairs.

Subsequently, a generating unit at Arnot, Duvha and Tutuka power stations was returned to service.

The delay in returning to service a generating unit at Kendal and Tutuka Power Stations is also contributing to the current capacity constraints.

Eskom said its load forecast for the evening peak demand is 27,639MW and appealed to the members of
the public to continue reducing demand by switching off non-essential appliances.

Warning of worse to come

The escalation of load shedding this week breaks a period of relative stability for power supply where Eskom was able to keep outages at low levels, even suspending them on some days.

The group has also been quite positive and optimistic about its overall performance, noting improvements, while also anticipating improved capacity heading into the latter months of the year and forward to 2024.

However, despite these small improvements – and a much better-than-expected energy situation in winter – economists at Nedbank say the ‘good times’ may be coming to an end.

In a note on Thursday, the bank said that while the country has seen some positive developments regarding load shedding, the underlying conditions at Eskom have not improved much.

“While the shift to solar energy among households and businesses is promising, it is not yet big enough to eliminate the electricity shortage.

“We believe that load shedding will probably return to more severe levels in the second half of the year as large smelters ramp up capacity and Eskom resumes much-needed planned maintenance,” it said.

September is a particularly testing time as Eskom will return to summertime tariffs for industries, which will likely kick up demand.

The group will also ramp up the number of MW being taken offline for planned maintenance, adding further pressure.

More positively, the group said that three units at Kusile should be coming online again around November, which will add close to 3,000MW to the grid. Other energy projects are also expected to be coming online.

Schedules 

For people living in the major metros, load shedding schedules are available here:

For access to other load shedding schedules, Eskom has made them available on loadshedding.eskom.co.za.

Smartphone users can also download the app EskomSePush to receive push notifications when load shedding is implemented, as well as the times the area you are in will be off.

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