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Every week the big cable news networks in the US — CNN, Fox News and MSNBC — blast out press releases touting some kind of ratings achievement. These documents are sometimes specific, and often ultra competitive, with each channel trying to claim the title of “most-watched” on cable.
Recently, this obsession with ratings has started to look a bit like musicians playing their violins as the Titanic sinks. Cable television is in long-term decline. Some recent statistics: every day, about 25,000 Americans cancel their cable cord. The number of US homes receiving cable TV has dwindled to about the same level as in 1992, according to MoffettNathanson, when it was still a relatively new medium.
In the US, less than half of viewership of “TV” actually occurs through traditional television. It is happening, instead, on streaming services. The erosion of pay-TV has “already gathered so much momentum that it is now uneconomical for anyone to fight the tide”, analysts at MoffettNathanson said in May. They estimate that 2.3mn Americans cut their cable cords in the first quarter.
This transition has been going on for a while, but the messaging around it has become more urgent. Disney’s Bob Iger this summer casually announced that its linear TV networks “may not be core” to the business, effectively putting these channels up for sale. As head of Disney, Iger’s comments tend to shape conversations in Hollywood, and he seemed to make it official: TV is on the way out.
It’s hard to reckon this backdrop with the quibbling over which cable news channel lured the most 25- to 54-year-olds on any given night. But the answer to that question is usually Fox News, Rupert Murdoch’s network, which has fared the best of the lot. Fox News benefits from a loyal audience, if ageing like other networks.
CNN, meanwhile, has suffered a steeper drop than its peers in the post-Trump media cycle, falling to a distant third place behind the left-leaning MSNBC. On average, only 463,000 people were watching CNN on any given day during the second quarter, down from 1.2mn in the same period in 2020. Among the coveted 25- to 54-year-old demographic, the numbers are more dire: only 94,513 of these people were watching CNN on an average day during the quarter.
These news networks are still pulling in big profits. They make most of their money from licensing fees that cable operators pay to run their programming and — for now — these operators are still paying up. But there will probably come a time when the maths no longer adds up. All these news companies will have to transform their businesses eventually.
Murdoch launched “Fox Nation” as a streaming platform for Fox News five years ago, but the company has yet to reveal how many people have signed up for it. In a recently leaked video, former Fox star Tucker Carlson said that “nobody watches Fox Nation because the site sucks”. At $6 a month, Fox Nation would have to attract 500mn subscribers to match the $3bn in revenue that Fox News makes under the current system. Analysts estimate that Fox Nation has fewer than 2mn subscribers.
CNN’s problems appear more pressing. The company has had three different owners in the past six years and suffered the abrupt exit of longtime leader Jeff Zucker, who had built CNN into a ratings machine during the Trump era. His departure was followed by a brief but tumultuous stint under Chris Licht, who left after a series of controversies.
Warner Bros Discovery on Thursday revealed plans to stream live CNN programming on its Max platform next month. Warner is also in talks to bring in Mark Thompson, a respected news veteran who ran the BBC and the New York Times, to right the ship at CNN, according to a person familiar with the matter.
But it is unclear how much WBD chief David Zaslav is willing to invest in a streaming future for CNN, which represents only a small fraction of Warner’s revenue. Warner denies that CNN is for sale, but with $45bn in net debt it is hard to imagine Zaslav would not sell if presented with a decent offer. The earliest he could do so is in April, owing to a stipulation in last year’s merger of Warner with Discovery.
Next year’s US presidential election provides hope for these cable news companies. But even it delivers a bump in ratings, the longer term malaise is clear.
anna.nicolaou@ft.com
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