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Global business travel spending is expected to surpass 2019 levels in 2024, two years sooner than previously forecast, according to the GBTA’s Business Travel Index Outlook report published at its annual convention in Dallas today.
Spend on business travel globally rose 47 per cent year-on-year in 2022, to $1.03 trillion, and is expected to grow a further 32 per cent in 2023, says the report which was produced by Rockport Analytics. Having “rebounded at a more accelerated rate than expected just a year ago”, travel spend is forecast to reach $1.4 trillion in 2024 and to nearly $1.8 trillion by 2027.
It is a significant shift from GBTA’s previous report, from August last year, when it said headwinds such as inflation and supply chain shortages were likely to delay full recovery to 2026.
Strong growth in 2022 and 2023 can be attributed to pent-up demand, more favourable global economic conditions and the subsiding fears of recessions, said the report.
“The headwinds that were anticipated to impact the rebound of global business travel over the past year didn’t materialise and that is good news,” said GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang. “This latest forecast now indicates an accelerated return to pre-pandemic spending levels sooner than anticipated as well as growth ahead in the coming years. Business travel spending is a key indicator, but how travel volumes will continue to rebound is yet to be seen.”
However, Neufang also warned that several factors could impact future growth in business travel spend, including an increased focus on sustainability initiatives, widespread adoption of virtual meetings technology, the growth of remote working, and the rise of blended travel.
Top 15 markets by business travel spend 2023
Annual growth in spend displayed in brackets
1. China (39%)
2. United States (25%)
3. Germany (38%)
4. Japan (69%)
5. United Kingdom (43%)
6. France (28%)
7. Italy (43%)
8. South Korea (44%)
9. India (25%)
10. Brazil (20%)
11. Spain (19%)
12. Australia (27%)
13. Netherlands (23%)
14. Canada (27%)
15. Indonesia (37%)
Of the estimated $1.03 trillion spent on business travel in 2022, air travel accounted for $183 billion (18 per cent), accommodation spend came in at $395 billion (38 per cent), food and beverage spend totalled $191 billion (19 per cent), some $138 billion (13 per cent) was spent on ground transport, and $121 billion went on other travel expenses.
Growth in business travel activity in 2022 was at its sharpest in Western Europe (109 per cent) following “an anemic recovery year in 2021”. However, recovery lagged in Emerging Europe (25 per cent growth) and Asia-Pacific (15 per cent), impacted respectively by the war in Ukraine and the delayed reopening of the Chinese economy. Its slow recovery saw China drop to number two in GBTA’s ranking of the top 15 markets globally but it is expected to regain top spot in 2023 (see right).
Meanwhile, a survey of more than 4,700 business travellers globally found the average amount spent on a trip is $1,018 per person. And more than 60 per cent of respondents said they are more frequently blending business and personal travel than they did in 2019.
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