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Having first trained as a pilot with Irish airline Aer Lingus, Walsh rose to become chief executive of the carrier in 2001, during the aftermath of 9/11, before taking the controls at a struggling British Airways four years later, fixing its finances and combining the business with a rival to form International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG), an industry titan. He left IAG in 2020 to take his current job in Switzerland, where he now lives.
When I speak to Walsh over a video call, he’s in a relaxed mood, sitting in his whitewashed, sparsely decorated office overlooking the runways of Geneva Airport. There are no clues about his previous lives on the walls; even the model plane on his desk was left behind by a predecessor. He is more occupied with the present: the threat of strike action looms again over Gatwick this summer and across the Channel, French air traffic control staff have vowed industrial action.
It comes after television screens were filled last month with pictures of holidaymakers fleeing Rhodes and Corfu, as wildfires ripped through parts of the popular Greek islands. And if that weren’t enough, there’s a cost of living crisis.
Yet for Walsh, and the rest of the industry, this is practically a tea party compared with what came before. After all, the previous three summers were plagued by mass industrial action (2022), Covid travel requirements (2021) and lockdowns (2020).
“The picture’s slightly more disruptive than it was in 2019 but it’s a lot better than it was last year,” Walsh says. “There will be some disruption, but most flights are getting away.”
After surviving pandemic turbulence – during which some top carriers looked as though they would collapse – the aviation industry is on course to turn its first annual profit since 2019, following more than $180 billion (£140 billion) of cumulative losses. Demand is back to about 95 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in Europe and IATA estimates it will have recovered fully by next year.
The worst damage suffered by airlines during Covid was to their balance sheets, as they were forced to take on huge debts to keep going while flights were grounded. “It’s going to take some time for that to be recouped,” adds Walsh. “But the recovery has certainly been stronger than we had expected.”
Despite a recent warning by budget carrier Ryanair that price cuts may be necessary this winter to prop up ticket sales, Walsh is not worried by the gloomy economic climate. Employment remains high and families are still desperate to travel after years of Covid restrictions, he says, brushing off concerns.
“People in employment tend to continue to want to take their holiday. There’s still very strong underlying demand for air travel, and I expect that to continue.”
One thing that is on his radar, however, is the rising cost of air fares, which have jumped higher since the pandemic. At Ryanair, for example, the average fare per passenger was €37 (£32) in 2019, but jumped to €49 in April to June this year – a whopping 32 per cent increase.
Walsh says this is largely owing to rises in the cost of jet fuel – the single biggest cost for airlines – as well as a shortage of seat capacity, made worse when the pandemic forced carriers to cut back – and still a problem today because of aircraft delivery delays.
What’s more, the push towards net zero will only put further upward pressure on prices. The industry, led by IATA, has pledged to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and, most notably, will involve switching from kerosene jet fuel to more sustainable – and expensive – alternatives.
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