“We have the G7 and then the BRICS is a sort of G7 for the emerging world, and as time is passing there is some kind of standoff, which is not really helpful for solving any really truly global challenges,” says O’Neill.

“What is certainly the case is each of those members is seeing its own self-interest in being diplomatically solid on not publicly supporting the West.”

BRICS is a bloc with an “excessive focus on symbolism”, O’Neill adds. But symbolism and identity politics are a defining factor in world politics. 

If the BRIC nations had been absorbed into the G7 20 years ago, it is feasible that there would be no war in Ukraine today, he suggests.

These nations were aligned because they were ignored by the Western system. Now, the bloc is casting itself as an alternative geopolitical force as tensions with Western powers escalate. 

“A lot of this manoeuvring is to do with Russia and China. China is worried about sanctions generally,” says van Staden. It needs alternative trading partners who will not impose requirements for universal values, he adds. 

The war has also galvanised long-simmering resentment against Western power structures. 

“I don’t think that some of the other BRICS members were burning to pick this fight with the West right now, but that kind of conflict does reflect wider discomfort with this old chafing they have with aspects of Western power in the global system,” says van Staden.

Whether or not its membership expands, the BRICS nations are becoming increasingly powerful players on the world stage. 

At the turn of the century, China’s economy measured in US dollars was equivalent to just 12pc of US GDP, says Kevin Daly, managing director and senior economist at Goldman Sachs. Now, it is worth close to 80pc.

In 2000, China was the world’s sixth largest economy in US dollar terms, according to Goldman Sachs analysis, ranking below the US, Japan, Germany, the UK and France. In 2022, China was the second largest economy, while India was fifth.