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(CNS): Heatwaves have been reported around the world this month, from Bejing to Seville to Texas and beyond, another worrying sign of the gathering pace of global warming. El Niño conditions this year are expected to compound the situation and experts say that 2023 could be the hottest year on record. The mercury is also rising in Cayman as both air and sea temperatures exceed seasonal averages.
There were no tropical storms over the Cayman Islands during the first month of the hurricane season, but the heat is unrelenting, and changes in local as well as global weather patterns are leading to less frequent but heavier rains. Cayman’s average annual temperature has already risen by 2.2°F over the last 40 years.
According to Copernicus, the Earth observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, the global-mean temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C in the first week of June 2023.
“The world has just experienced its warmest early June on record, following a month of May that was less than 0.1°C cooler than the warmest May on record. Monitoring our climate is more important than ever to determine how often and for how long global temperatures are exceeding the 1.5 degrees threshold. Every single fraction of a degree matters to avoid even more severe consequences of the climate crisis,” said Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Deputy Director Samantha Burgess.
The long-term global warming will likely receive a further pulse of heat this summer from El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon that causes temperatures to spike. Even though it also tempers storm activity in the Atlantic, Cayman Islands National Weather Service Director John Tibbetts urged people not to be complacent.
In a service announcement reminding people to be prepared for any weather over this holiday weekend, Tibbetts said that storm forecasting would be challenging this season because there are separate dynamic weather events taking place and predicting the El Niño-La Niña cycle is not an exact science.
“At the present time, we don’t know how strong that El Niño will be,” he said. “However, the presence of El Niño would be good news for the Cayman Islands as it tends to hinder tropical cyclone development. This happens as El Niño generates additional vertical wind shear, and these strong upper-level winds weaken tropical cyclones as the upper circulation is blown away from the low-level centre.”
Nevertheless, rising sea temperatures in the Atlantic and the Caribbean could still fuel extremely intense hurricanes if the El Niño influence is not strong enough.
Even if Cayman escapes any major storms this season, the rising temperature and potential drought, intermittent heavy rain, king tides and increasingly unpredictable weather could make life challenging for those in areas prone to flooding. For people living without air-conditioning or who cannot afford to use it, the summer of 2023 could be unbearable.
The public is being urged to submit their comments on the government’s proposed Climate Change Policy before the end of the consultation period this evening.
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