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The cryptocurrency industry has been in turmoil for more than two years. It started with a rotation away from risk assets as recession fears rippled through the economy in late 2021. Then the collapse of the Terra blockchain ecosystem set in motion a series of bankruptcies and forced liquidations that dragged the market down even further.
In total, the value destruction exceeded $2 trillion when the market finally hit bottom. But Bitcoin (BTC -0.57%) brought the cryptocurrency market roaring back to life in recent months as two potential tailwinds caught investors’ attention: the pending approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the reduction in Bitcoin mining rewards later this year.
The first catalyst has already come to fruition. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETF applications on Wednesday, including proposals from two of the three largest asset managers in the world, BlackRock and Fidelity. That could elicit a wave of interest among retail and institutional investors, and the resulting increase in demand could drive the price of Bitcoin higher.
Indeed, certain Wall Street analysts expect Bitcoin to triple or quadruple in value by 2025, and another analyst believes Bitcoin could increase 10-fold in value during the next five years.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could boost demand
The SEC began approving Bitcoin futures ETFs in October 2021. Those products invest in futures contracts rather than the cryptocurrency itself, so they do not track its price exactly. Case in point, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF returned 39% in the past six months, but Bitcoin increased 54% during that time.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs will invest directly in Bitcoin and closely track its price. The appeal of such products is direct exposure to Bitcoin without the hassle of cryptocurrency exchanges and blockchain wallets. Investors can simply buy shares of a spot Bitcoin ETF through existing brokerage accounts. That could boost demand among retail and institutional traders.
To add detail, Bitcoin’s price is determined by supply and demand, but the only variable of consequence is demand because its total supply is fixed at 21 million coins, of which about 19.6 million have been created. So, if the accessibility provided by spot Bitcoin ETFs translates into greater demand among retail and institutional investors, the price of Bitcoin could soar in the coming months and years.
Several Wall Street analysts see that as a likely outcome — especially in combination with the upcoming reduction in mining rewards — given that reputable financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are participating as ETF issuers. Indeed, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani believes Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by 2025, implying 210% upside. Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick says Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025, implying 313% upside. And Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee says $500,000 is achievable by 2029, implying 1,000% upside.
The reduction in Bitcoin mining rewards could reduce selling pressure
Bitcoin mining rewards are cut in half every time 210,000 blocks are added to the blockchain, which happens about once every four years. The next Bitcoin halving event will occur in April 2024. Analysts believe that will lead to a substantial reduction in selling pressure, simply because miners will see Bitcoin inflows fall by 50%, meaning they will only have half as much cryptocurrency to sell.
To quantify that, MicroStrategy former Chief Executive Officer Michael Saylor believes selling pressure will fall from $12 billion annually to $6 billion annually after Bitcoin mining rewards are cut in half in April. That reduction in selling pressure will be tantamount to an increase in demand, potentially pushing the price of Bitcoin higher.
Indeed, Saylor predicted in 2022 that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 during the next decade, implying about 1,000% upside. However, he was more recently quoted as saying Bitcoin could hit $5 million at some point in the future. That implies 10,230% upside, a seemingly absurd figure. But there is a historical precedent for halving events driving the price of Bitcoin higher.
The chart below lists the dates of past halving events and it details the returns generated by Bitcoin during the subsequent two-year periods.
|
Bitcoin Halving Event Date |
Bitcoin Return (2 Years Later) |
|---|---|
|
2012 |
2,964% |
|
2016 |
922% |
|
2020 |
348% |
Data source: Fidelity.
Here’s the bottom line: Two catalysts could send Bitcoin soaring in the coming months and years. That makes the present a good time to buy a small position. But investors should remember that cryptocurrency is a young, volatile, and risky asset class. Bitcoin has fallen by 45% or more four times in the past five years, and a similar retreat is possible (if not probable) at some time in the future.
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